預測市場

Kalshi predict market platform announced that it will offer a $1 billion reward to users who perfectly predict NCAA March Madness game results, despite extremely low odds (1 in 120 billion). Comparatively, the best predictor will win $1 million, while another $1 million will be donated to charity. This activity references a similar reward from Buffett, which has had no winners since 2014.

Gate News report, on March 17, NBA star Devin Booker announced on the X platform a partnership with prediction market platform Kalshi. This is another notable NBA player establishing a collaboration with the platform, following Giannis Antetokounmpo.

某賬戶在Polymarket上押注14萬美元，預測勇士將在對戰奇才的NBA常規賽中獲勝，儘管該賬戶已虧損超1100萬美元。比賽將於今日早7點進行，勇士排名西部第9，奇才排名東部倒數第二。

3月16日，英雄联盟国际先锋赛小组赛中，BLG战队以802万美元的总交易量战胜BFX。账户avenger与CryptoRED分别盈利75254与31334万美元，押注BLG胜利。赛事共8支队伍参赛，采用BO5赛制。

Polymarket data shows that BTC has an 83% probability of breaking through $75,000 in March, while the probability of falling below $65,000 is 32%. ETH has a 70% probability of breaking through $2,400, a 34% probability of breaking through $2,600, and only a 9% probability of falling below $1,800.

Gate News 消息，3 月 16 日，據 Odaily Seer 先知頻道監測，Polymarket 上預測美伊在 4 月 30 日之前停火的概率已降至 36%，本月下降了 43%。該概率在 3 月初曾達到 75% 以上的峰值，之後出現急劇下降。

美國總統特朗普的言論對股市影響深遠，台灣創業家TK Lin推出「Trump Code」專案，利用大數據與機器學習分析其推文與市場關聯，成功建立有效的交易信號系統。目前命中率為61.3%，專案在GitHub上開源，並支持接入交易機器人。

Gate News 消息，3 月 16 日，加密研究員 Stacy Muur 在 X 平台披露，Polymarket 盈利排名前 20 的交易者中，有 14 名為機器人賬戶，佔比達 70%。Stacy Muur 認為，為 AI Agent 構建專門的預測市場平台基礎設施層，很可能成為一個價值數十億美元的項目方向。

以色列時報記者因準確報道伊朗導彈襲擊而遭受騷擾與死亡威脅，威脅者因押注失敗逼迫其修改報道。記者已報案，表示將堅持職業道德，擔憂其他人可能受誘惑。

Gate News，3 月 16 日，預測市場數據平台 Parity 發布數據顯示，近 30 天預測市場收入排名前 6 名分別為：Kalshi 收入 1.1 億美元，位居第一；Polymarket 收入 420 萬美元；某 CEX 收入 417 萬美元；Opinion Labs 收入 136 萬美元；Limitless 收入 117 萬美元；IBKR 收入 60 萬美元。

Gate News reports that on March 16, a certain address spent $1,163,753 on Polymarket to buy the event "Iran attacks Israel on March 10" which already has a 100% probability, at a unit price of 99.9¢, with current profits of $600. The event will settle in approximately 13 hours. Additionally, Polymarket still does not charge fees for political events.

This text is already in Traditional Chinese and matches the target language requirement. Here it is unchanged: 本文介绍了如何在Polymarket上进行做市操作，以获得流动性提供（LP）奖励。作者解释了Maker和Taker的概念，强调了挂单量、挂单时长和挂单价格对奖励的影响。文章提供了选择适合做市市场的标准，包括订单簿深度和竞争程度，并详细描述了挂单的策略及注意事项，旨在帮助小白用户上手操作。

NCAA "March Madness" will begin on March 18, with 68 college teams competing for the championship through single-elimination games. According to real-time odds on Polymarket, Duke University, University of Michigan, University of Arizona, and University of Florida are the top four teams in championship odds rankings.

Polymarket predicts that by 21:00 today, the trading volume for the League of Legends BLG vs BFX match will reach $986,000, with major accounts betting on BLG's victory purchasing 100,000 and 90,000 shares respectively. The International Pioneer Championship features 8 teams competing, with matches using a BO5 format.

2026年第98屆奧斯卡金像獎揭曉，《一戰再戰》成為最大贏家，獲得最佳影片等6獎。麥可·B·喬丹爆冷奪影帝，交易員NeoWick借此賺取280萬元。該屆奧斯卡創下多項紀錄，入圍最多的《罪人》獲得4獎，而艾美·麥蒂根則成為時隔35年再度奪獎的演員。

March 16 News: Prediction market Polymarket shows that bets on "US military will not enter Iran before April" have surged significantly, with someone investing $83,600 successfully raising the probability to 73%. Trump plans to establish an international coalition to ensure the security of the Strait of Hormuz, however Gulf states have denied providing military operation support. Despite Iran's attacks on Israel and US military bases, the US response remains focused on maintaining freedom of navigation in the strait and other aspects.

March 16, 3 accounts on a certain prediction market platform jointly wagered $60,000, betting that "the United States will not invade Cuba in 2026". In early 2026, the United States intensified sanctions against Cuba, leading to fuel shortages and blackout crises in Cuba, with escalating tensions and increased domestic protests.

Gate News Report: On March 16, monitoring data showed that 4 accounts wagered $63,800 within 1 minute on the prediction event "Will MetaMask issue a token before September 30?" betting on "No," with an opening price of 80¢, consistent with the current price. It is reported that MetaMask token issuance expectations have been discussed in the crypto community for years, but the official team has never provided a clear timeline. The probability of "no token issuance" in relevant prediction markets has long been maintained at relatively high levels.

Polymarket 預測顯示，比特幣回升至 7.5 萬美元的概率提高至 84%，8 萬美元的概率為 40%。同時，回落至 6.5 萬美元的概率降至 30%，當前 BTC 價格為 73,758.1 USDT，漲幅 1.29%。

Gate News Report: On March 16, data from the Polymarket platform showed that the probability of betting on "edgeX FDV exceeding $300 million one day after launch" is 92%. Additionally, the probability of exceeding $500 million one day after launch is 64%, and the probability of exceeding $700 million one day after launch is 50%. The transaction volume for this prediction event has exceeded $4.7 million.