# 非农就业数据

Beyond Non-Farm Payrolls, what is more worth警惕的是“就业拐点”
Compared to the single Non-Farm Payrolls report, what investors should be more警惕的是“就业结构性变化带来的“拐点信号”。 Historically, what truly influences the medium- to long-term market trend is not a single employment report falling significantly short of expectations, but rather sustained weakening of employment data over multiple months, accompanied by a synchronized decline in other economic indicators.
For example, when job gains continue to decline, the unemployment rate trends upward, and news of layoffs increases, it often indicates a substantial c

Non-farm Payrolls Release Day: Why Do Markets Often Move in the Opposite Direction?
Many traders share a common confusion: even when non-farm data appears to be bullish for a certain asset, the price tends to move in the opposite direction. The reason is not that the market is "wrong," but that it has already priced in the expectations in advance. On non-farm release days, the market essentially becomes a game of "positions versus expectations."
Before the data is released, a large amount of capital has already been positioned based on expectations. Once the data is out, if the results merely

The core of non-farm payroll data is not about "how much new employment" but whether "interest rate cuts are still possible."
Entering 2026, the market significance of non-farm employment data has clearly diverged from the early stages of rate hike cycles. In the past, an increase in new jobs was often seen as a sign of an overheating economy; now, non-farm data more resembles a gauge of "whether the Federal Reserve has room to continue easing." In other words, non-farm data is not only an economic indicator but also a direct clue to the monetary policy path.
If employment growth continues to

Looking at Non-Farm Payrolls to gauge Federal Reserve rate cut expectations is often overrated
Before and after each Non-Farm Payrolls release, the hottest topic in the market is almost always “When will the Fed cut rates?” However, a review of history shows that the market tends to price in rate cuts faster than reality. Even if the non-farm data shows a temporary slowdown, it doesn't necessarily lead to an immediate change in the Fed’s policy stance, because the Fed pays more attention to “trends” rather than “single data points.”
The resilience of employment data actually gives the Fed more

Non-farm payroll data is more like an "emotion trigger" for financial markets.
In the current cycle, the impact of non-farm employment data on the market mainly manifests as "short-term emotional fluctuations," rather than a reversal of the trend. The reason is that most institutions have already formed expectations about the core state of the economy, and a single data point is difficult to change long-term judgments. However, this does not mean that non-farm data is unimportant. On the contrary, it functions like a high-frequency trigger: when the data slightly deviates from expectations, th

Non-farm "surface stability" does not mean there are no cracks in the employment market
From a macro perspective, the non-farm data in 2026 may appear to be "surface stable": new jobs will not decline sharply, and the unemployment rate will remain within a manageable range. However, this does not mean the employment market can rest easy. True changes are often hidden within the structure. On one hand, the growth of high-quality positions may continue to slow down, with companies more inclined to control recruitment, increase temporary jobs, or reduce working hours to cope with uncertainty; on

What truly determines the trend in 2026 is not a single Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report, but a series of NFP data.
If a month's NFP data is a "snapshot" of the economy, then what is truly worth paying attention to in 2026 is the sustainability and direction of the NFP trend. Ultimately, the market cares not about whether a particular data release exceeds or falls short of expectations, but whether a trend has already formed. Several months of employment slowdown without a collapse suggest a soft landing for the economy; however, several months of worsening employment will force policy and market

#非农就业数据 Contradictory Non-Farm Signals: Cooling Employment but No Hope for Rate Cuts, Will Bitcoin Rise or Fall?
US December non-farm payroll data finally presents a relatively clear picture after the government shutdown turmoil, but this report casts a complex shadow over the market—significant cooling in the employment sector, yet the Federal Reserve may become more cautious because of it.
Bitcoin reacted quickly after the data release, with prices temporarily finding support in the $90,000 to $91,000 range. The report reveals that the US economy is experiencing a "slow cooling" rather than