#非农就业数据 Contradictory Non-Farm Signals: Cooling Employment but No Hope for Rate Cuts, Will Bitcoin Rise or Fall?

US December non-farm payroll data finally presents a relatively clear picture after the government shutdown turmoil, but this report casts a complex shadow over the market—significant cooling in the employment sector, yet the Federal Reserve may become more cautious because of it.

Bitcoin reacted quickly after the data release, with prices temporarily finding support in the $90,000 to $91,000 range. The report reveals that the US economy is experiencing a "slow cooling" rather than a "rapid deterioration," with new jobs mainly supported by a few service industries, while goods production and related consumption sectors appear weak.

Meanwhile, the market did not receive an immediate signal for rate cuts from this report. Federal funds rate futures show that the probability of the Fed holding rates steady at the January meeting remains close to 95%.

01 The Truth of the Data

December US non-farm employment presents a complex picture.

New jobs increased by only 50,000, below the market expectation of 60,000, hitting a recent low. Data for the previous two months were significantly revised downward, with October's figures even revised to a decrease of 173,000 jobs.

Contrasting the weak job growth, the unemployment rate slightly improved, falling from 4.6% in November to 4.4%, slightly below market expectations. However, this "stability" is more due to a simultaneous contraction in labor supply rather than an improvement in job demand.

Looking at industry distribution, the new jobs are mainly concentrated in a few "safety net" service sectors such as dining and hotels, healthcare, and social assistance. Healthcare and social assistance remain the most stable sources of employment throughout the year, while retail has decreased by 25,000 jobs.

Overall, goods production and related industries remain weak, with manufacturing, construction, transportation, and warehousing employment essentially flat.

02 The Fed's Calculations

This seemingly contradictory data may actually reinforce the Fed's wait-and-see stance. Market pricing for short-term rate cuts has not significantly warmed despite the December employment data.

Rate futures traders maintain expectations that the Fed will hold steady at the January meeting.

US employment performance was not as bad as expected; the labor market conditions are slightly better than the predictions of the more dovish Fed members.

This means the Fed is not in a hurry to cut rates again. The December unemployment rate is already slightly below the Fed's forecast of 4.5% for Q4 last year. Coupled with the expectation of relatively strong Q4 GDP growth, the Fed is likely to keep rates unchanged for at least the next few months.

03 The Macro Logic of the Crypto Market

From a traditional financial perspective, this report is seen by some market participants as reinforcing the narrative of a "soft landing" for the US economy—that growth is slowing but not out of control.

This "Goldilocks" environment (not too hot, not too cold) theoretically benefits risk assets.

For the cryptocurrency market, the macro transmission path remains clear: weak data → rising rate cut expectations → weakening dollar → support for cryptocurrencies. However, the complexity of the current data mix leads to divergent market interpretations.

The key is the immediate reaction of the dollar index after the data release, which often serves as the most direct indicator of capital flow direction.

04 Bitcoin and Ethereum's Battle

Bitcoin currently shows resilience near the $90,000 mark. The market's core focus is entirely on the non-farm data, as the data performance will directly influence expectations for the Fed's rate cut pace, triggering market volatility.

On the technical side, focus should be on the support at $88,000. If the weekly close remains above $92,000, the bullish trend will be confirmed to continue. There is effective support near the midline of the daily chart, but the overall weak pattern has not been fully reversed.

Ethereum's movement is highly synchronized with Bitcoin. After returning above $3,100, the momentum for a rebound in the early hours was insufficient, stalling around $3,140. The technical picture also shows mixed signals between bulls and bears, with close attention needed on whether it can stabilize above $3,200 amid macro support.

05 The Hidden Flows of Institutional Funds

Despite short-term volatility caused by data, institutional interest in Bitcoin remains strong in the long term. US 14 spot Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated over $100 billion in assets, with the iShares Bitcoin Trust under BlackRock leading with $67 billion in assets under management.

Morgan Stanley is preparing to launch a new ETF supporting Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

Some analysts point out that if just 1% of the US 401(k) plan funds flow into Bitcoin, the potential incremental capital could reach approximately $87 billion.

More notably, the trend among sovereign wealth funds shows that some are gradually increasing their positions during Bitcoin price corrections, building long-term holdings. This long-term allocation could provide support during market downturns, reducing volatility.

The immediate response pattern of the crypto market to macro data has become relatively fixed: weak data usually triggers increased rate cut expectations, boosting market sentiment.

Looking at overnight movements, both Bitcoin and Ethereum have not breached key support levels, and bulls remain steadfast.

Solana benefits from institutional capital and active on-chain ecosystems; its response to macroeconomic favorable signals is often more sensitive than Ethereum.

As the regulatory environment gradually clarifies and institutional participation continues to rise, the fundamental support for the crypto market is strengthening. Regardless of short-term data fluctuations, Bitcoin's inherent nature as a "liquidity sponge" makes it attractive under easing expectations.