What truly determines the trend in 2026 is not a single Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report, but a series of NFP data.

If a month's NFP data is a "snapshot" of the economy, then what is truly worth paying attention to in 2026 is the sustainability and direction of the NFP trend. Ultimately, the market cares not about whether a particular data release exceeds or falls short of expectations, but whether a trend has already formed. Several months of employment slowdown without a collapse suggest a soft landing for the economy; however, several months of worsening employment will force policy and market expectations to adjust together. Conversely, if employment remains high for an extended period and inflation remains stubborn, the room for monetary policy operations will be compressed. Therefore, the most rational attitude towards 2026's NFP data is not "betting on the outcome," but "tracking the evolution." Only by placing NFP data within the larger macroeconomic puzzle—alongside inflation, interest rates, corporate earnings, and others—can we avoid being led by emotions driven by a single data point. #非农就业数据