U.S. Treasury Prohibits Americans from Safe Passage Agreements with Iran on May 30; Strait of Hormuz Passage Odds at 34% by June

According to the U.S. Department of Treasury and the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) on May 30, Americans are prohibited from reaching any "safe passage" agreements with Iran's government or Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, even without payment. Iran's newly established Persian Gulf Strait Administration aims to collect transit fees and provide security for vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz; the U.S. has designated it a sanctions target.

Market prediction data from Polymarket shows the probability of Strait of Hormuz passage before June 15 at 8%, with 34% probability by month-end.