Macroeconomics

Over the past four months, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded a net outflow of $6.39 billion, marking the longest losing streak in history; Ethereum ETFs have also seen outflows of $2.76 billion during the same period, totaling over $9 billion, indicating a significant decline in institutional demand for crypto assets. This phenomenon is related to geopolitical and inflation concerns, and market rebounds will depend on sustained capital inflows.

After the United States and Israel launched military actions, Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei was confirmed dead, triggering tensions in the Middle East and Iran's retaliatory actions. The crypto market was affected, with over $652 million liquidated within 24 hours. Bitcoin rebounded after the panic, indicating the market's sensitivity to geopolitical changes. The potential blockade of the Hormuz Strait could impact oil prices and inflation, raising long-term concerns about crypto assets.

US gasoline prices are set to rise due to geopolitical tensions in Iran, possibly reaching $3.10-$3.25 per gallon. Meanwhile, the crypto market has seen a slight decline, with top cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH experiencing volatility influenced by external factors like AI and tariffs.

On March 1, 2026, a U.S.-Israel military strike resulted in the killing of Iran's top leader, triggering intense volatility in global markets. Traditional safe-haven assets like crude oil and gold rose, while Bitcoin faced significant turmoil. Options market data shows that institutional funds remain optimistic about the future, but hedging demand surged in the short term. Overall, the crypto market is expected to experience a corrective rebound after the panic, with particular attention to the $76,000 options maximum pain point.

The US-Iran conflict has driven up oil prices, raising concerns about inflation returning to 5%. Analysts believe that Bitcoin is relatively weak compared to gold, but when valued in gold, the bottom may appear this month, with a potential rebound to $74,000. Technical indicators show that Bitcoin has found support, while rising oil prices could impact the performance of risk assets.

10xResearch in its latest report states that crypto market positions have largely cleared, funding rates have dropped to lows, and implied volatility has reset, but liquidity remains fragile. The US 10-year Treasury yield has declined, ETF funds experienced a brief net inflow, and options traders are adjusting their positions around key March events.

The Middle East situation worsens, with the US and Israel launching large-scale airstrikes on Iran, resulting in multiple high-level officials being attacked and killed. The conflict impacts global energy and financial markets, with oil prices facing upward risk and a rise in risk aversion. The disruption of supply through the Strait of Hormuz could trigger inflation reassessment, leading to increased volatility in global asset prices.

The escalating conflict in the Middle East has triggered investor demand for safe-haven assets, including the US dollar, gold, and the Swiss franc. Shipping safety in the Hormuz Strait has become a focal point, with potential oil price increases possibly adding to global inflationary pressures. The stock market is facing re-pricing, with defensive sectors performing better, while Bitcoin experiences significant volatility amid market fluctuations. The UAE Securities Exchange will be closed due to the conflict, impacting economic stability.

Author: Ariel, Crypto City JPMorgan Chase CEO Warns: Financial Environment Shows Signs of 2008 Crisis Jamie Dimon, CEO who led JPMorgan Chase through the 2008 financial crisis and acquired two failed competitors, warned on February 24 that the current financial market conditions and some banks engaging in reckless behavior such as taking on high-risk loans for profit could trigger a situation similar to the outbreak of the 2008 financial tsunami. The current market situation is very similar to 2005, 2006, and 2007, with soaring asset prices and trading volumes causing excessive optimism among market participants. Some financial institutions are making high-risk decisions to generate net interest income. He expects that the credit cycle will eventually deteriorate again, although the specific timing remains uncertain. Dimon reviews last year's auto loan

Mexican billionaire Ricardo Salinas Pliego is heavily investing in Bitcoin, believing it can hedge against inflation and symbolize personal freedom. Robert Kiyosaki warns that a stock market crash is imminent and continues to increase his holdings in Bitcoin and precious metals, remaining confident. They both believe that Bitcoin has long-term value potential, and the current price dip is a good buying opportunity.

News Preview: Bitway (BTW) will be launched on March 2nd, supporting trading on Binance Alpha; MANTRA Chain plans to upgrade to v7.0.0 software on March 3rd; Gemini will cease operations in the UK, with customer accounts only able to withdraw starting March 5th; HyperLiquid co-founder: 173,000 HYPE tokens will be unstaked and distributed to team members on March 6th; RedStone (RED) will unlock approximately 40.85 million tokens at midnight Beijing time on March 7th, accounting for 16.13% of the current circulating supply, valued at about $6.2 million. March 2nd Macroeconomics: At 22:45 on March 2nd, the US will release the February S&P Global Manufacturing PMI

The US-Israel joint forces attack Iran, resulting in the death of Supreme Leader Khamenei. Iran immediately blocks the Strait of Hormuz, causing a disruption in global oil transportation and a sharp surge in oil prices. Analysts warn that if the blockade continues, Brent crude prices could break through $100, affecting the global energy market and the performance of Taiwan stocks, with increased pressure from foreign capital withdrawals.

Next week, geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran will increase market uncertainty. Key macroeconomic data include US Manufacturing PMI, ADP employment figures, and the Federal Reserve Beige Book. Additionally, the Nasdaq index failed to reach a new high, and concerns about the profitability of AI technology have arisen, leading to cautious investor sentiment.

The US and Israel's airstrikes on Iran ignite Middle East conflict, Bitcoin experiences a sharp震 and clears over $652 million, with energy and inflation risks heating up, impacting global markets. Conflict erupts and Middle East situation escalates全面 ------------- The Middle East situation entered a state of extreme turbulence in late February 2026. The US and Israel jointly launched a large-scale military operation against Iran, codenamed "Operation Epic Fury," aimed at destroying Iran's nuclear facilities, missile production bases, and naval forces. US President Trump confirmed US military involvement through social media platforms, claiming this move was to eliminate imminent threats against the US and its allies. Israel's Minister of Defense Katz immediately declared a nationwide state of emergency, with air raid sirens sounding in Tel Aviv and other locations, and hospitals switching to underground operations. Image source: Truth Social/realDonaldTru

Despite concerns that Iran might block the Strait of Hormuz to impact oil supplies, experts believe this worry is exaggerated. A blockade would not align with Iran's interests, and geographical conditions limit its feasibility. Nevertheless, a full-scale war could still trigger market risk sentiment.

The US-Iran conflict intensifies, and global markets face high uncertainty. Analysis indicates that Iran may choose to retaliate through indirect means, affecting global energy security. Important US macroeconomic data will be released next week, and the market should pay attention to changes in relevant indicators.

One of the most important macro trends right now is the steady expansion of global liquidity. Recent data shows that worldwide M2 money supply has surpassed $100 trillion, with central banks continuing to inject capital into their economies. Year-over-year growth remains strong, signaling ongoing mo

Citrini's AI outlook report has attracted market attention, warning that mature AI technology could replace a large number of white-collar jobs, impacting consumption and the economy. Bitcoin and stablecoins have become focal points, with analysts believing that Bitcoin prices are supported when liquidity increases. Stablecoins may play an important role in AI trading, and the market may reevaluate the value of Bitcoin and stablecoins in the future.

Bitcoin retreated due to the US PPI exceeding expectations and Nvidia's stock price declining, falling to $65,735, a weekly decrease of 2.8%. Altcoins such as Solana and Ethereum experienced even larger drops. Despite strong Bitcoin ETF fund inflows, the overall market remains under pressure, with attention on price range support and the potential for a future rebound.