Commodities (Crude Oil & Copper) & Macro Outlook

Iran-U.S. third round of talks in Pakistan has ended. Iran says this is the “last chance” to reach a framework agreement. There are significant differences between the two sides on core issues such as the Strait of Hormuz and the nuclear issue, and no substantive progress has been made. The negotiations are still ongoing; the situation is complex, and both military actions and diplomatic games are escalating in parallel.

An Iran-U.S. peace negotiation is about to begin. The Iranian delegation consists of 71 people and is led by Speaker Kalibaf; the U.S. side has a 300-person delegation, mainly security and guard personnel. The two sides’ lineup differences are significant, and the negotiations will touch on sensitive issues such as economic sanctions and nuclear facilities.

CNN reported that a security source in Iran said the Strait of Hormuz will continue to be blocked before Iran and the United States reach a negotiated joint framework, because the U.S. side has put forward excessive demands. Iran emphasized that it is not in a hurry to take action; things will remain as they are, and the number of ship passages also cannot be realized.

According to data from a research institution, crypto perpetual contracts that are anchored to traditional assets are gradually becoming a tool for “pre-pricing Wall Street,” with their weekend price movements predicting the accuracy of Monday’s traditional market by as much as 89%. Trading volume and weekend activity for these contracts have increased significantly, and they have become an important reference for gauging the short-term direction of traditional markets.

In a statement on April 11, Trump said that Iran’s military power was severely dealt a blow, with its navy, air force, and air defense systems nearly destroyed, leaving only naval mines as a threat. The United States is clearing the Strait of Hormuz and is also assisting multiple countries in transporting oil.

The United States and Iran held historic direct talks on April 11 in Islamabad, Pakistan, marking the first high-level diplomatic contact since the 1979 Iranian Revolution. The aim is to stabilize the ceasefire and seek a war-resolution solution. Both delegations are large in size, and Pakistan is serving as the intermediary. The negotiations are set against the backdrop of recent military clashes and their impact on global financial markets, and the market will closely watch developments.

Gate News update, April 11, Trump posted on his Truth platform saying that a large number of empty tankers—some of the largest in the world—are currently en route to the United States, loaded with the world’s highest-quality, most “sweet” oil and natural gas. Trump emphasized that the United States’ oil reserves exceed the combined totals of the second- and third-largest oil-producing countries, and that the quality is higher. In the post, he wrote: “We look forward to your visit. Don’t waste time!”

A U.S. bank research report said that since the 1970s, the global economy’s reliance on oil has declined, and the oil required now is only one-third of that at the time, with economic resilience strengthening. In addition, Haitong Securities’ analysis found that gold did not exhibit safe-haven characteristics; after experiencing a pullback due to geopolitical shocks, it rebounded.

Gate News message. On April 11, the U.S. Department of Energy announced that it will lend 8.5 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to four companies. Companies that will borrow crude oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve include Macquarie and Phillips 66.

Gate News message, April 11, according to Reuters, a senior U.S. White House official said that skepticism is pervasive inside the White House. The official said that during recent conversations with his advisers, Trump seems to have acknowledged that the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to fully reopen in the short term. However, at the same time, on Thursday Trump posted on social media that oil supplies will be restored soon, but provided no further details.

Reports say that Iran plans, during a U.S.-Iran ceasefire period, to require tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz to pay a toll of $1 per barrel in Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. The cost for a single trip could reach $2 million. A fully loaded tanker must declare its cargo and make payment with cryptocurrency, while also ensuring the transaction is not tracked. The move is intended to evade the risk of sanctions from the traditional financial system.

Gate News update: On April 10, according to market sources, on April 11, U.S. Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren sent a letter to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), requesting an investigation into oil trades related to remarks made by U.S. President Donald Trump about Iran.

Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister, Habibzadeh, said that although the Strait of Hormuz remains open, due to technical restrictions imposed in the war zone environment, all vessels must coordinate with Iran’s military to ensure safety. U.S. ships may transit, but must not engage in hostile activities and must comply with relevant regulations.

On April 10, the precious metals market was strong: gold rose to $4,773.60 per ounce, and silver rose to $76.364 per ounce. In the crypto market, volatility eased, the FX market saw the U.S. dollar weaken versus the Chinese yuan, and global equity indexes rose. In commodities, WTI crude oil rose while Brent crude oil fell. The Gate platform supports trading a variety of financial assets.

U.S. March consumer price index ( CPI ) year-over-year rate rose to 3.3%, reaching the highest level in nearly two years. It was mainly driven by the Iran war, which caused energy costs to skyrocket. However, the core CPI suggests that underlying inflation pressure remains within a manageable range, and the Federal Reserve may continue to exercise patience; the timing of rate cuts is still unclear.

The U.S. federal government argues that sports event wagering should be treated as a financial derivative rather than gambling, and it seeks to bar Arizona from enforcing against Kalshi, the prediction market platform. If the court backs the federal position, prediction markets will operate under uniform nationwide regulation, weakening each state’s ability to regulate. This legal dispute concerns the legitimacy of prediction markets and the allocation of regulatory authority, affecting the future development of the industry.

U.S. stocks rebounded after the ceasefire agreement was announced, nearing a full recovery of the losses caused by the Iran war, but the oil market remained cautious, with prices holding at elevated levels. Investors’ confidence in future economic and political developments increased, and they may continue to add to their positions.

Gate News message, April 10, after the CPI data was released, the latest price of WTI U.S. crude oil (U.S. West Texas Intermediate) was $97.57 per barrel, and Brent crude oil (the international benchmark) was latest at $95.46 per barrel. The U.S. Dollar Index DXY (an indicator that measures the strength of the U.S. dollar against a basket of currencies) fell 10 points in the short term, with the latest reading at 98.68.

Gate News message: On April 10, the U.S. March unadjusted CPI year-over-year rate recorded 3.3%, with gasoline prices accounting for nearly three-quarters of the CPI increase.

Gate News, on April 10, Daly, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, said that if the Iran conflict is resolved quickly and oil prices fall, a rate cut is “not impossible.” She also noted that the likelihood of a rate hike is lower than the likelihood of cutting rates or keeping interest rates unchanged.