ChainCatcher News, Gate CBO Kevin Lee has published a new article titled “War, War Has Never Changed… How Will the Macro Markets Move?” It points out that geopolitical conflicts themselves do not alter the fundamental logic of market operation. What truly determines the medium-term direction of assets is the impact of ongoing conflicts on inflation trajectories and changes in central bank policy stances.
Kevin states that within hours to days after a conflict erupts, crude oil usually experiences significant volatility first, with market pricing in the tail risk of supply disruptions; gold then follows, serving as both a safe haven and an inflation hedge; stock markets face short-term pressure, with the VIX rising rapidly and sector divergence becoming apparent.
After several days to two weeks, if energy supplies remain unaffected, oil prices and risk premiums tend to retrace, and stocks and cryptocurrencies rebound as risk sentiment recovers; however, if high oil prices persist longer, inflation expectations will be systematically elevated, shifting asset valuation logic from trading to macroeconomic fundamentals.
The article further emphasizes that the true change in trend is not the market reaction on the day of the conflict but the inflation data and policy expectations that gradually emerge weeks later. Over longer cycles, markets will reprice around inflation evolution, the credibility of monetary policy, and economic growth prospects. Historical experience repeatedly shows that in environments of high uncertainty, emotional decision-making can be costly. Understanding transmission sequences and respecting cyclical laws are key to navigating volatility.
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
Geopolitical Shock Sends Markets and Crypto Reeling
Global markets faced turmoil after U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran, causing volatility in oil, gold, and crypto. Bitcoin briefly plunged but recovered, while energy price shocks raise inflation concerns, affecting investor sentiment and market structure.
CryptoFrontNews2h ago
ETH short-term surge of 1.30%: On-chain large transfers and concentrated liquidity drive price breakthrough of resistance
On March 3, 2026, from 16:00 to 16:15 (UTC), ETH achieved a short-term profit of +1.30%, with the price fluctuating between 1965.11 and 2001.75 USDT, a volatility of 1.86%. Market attention significantly increased, minute-level trading volume surged, volatility intensified, and short-term capital was actively chasing gains. The main drivers of this anomaly were large inflows of on-chain funds and whale activities. Ceffu's hot wallet transferred a large amount of 15,000 ETH to a major exchange on the same day, whales recharged USDC margins, and large on-chain transfers were active, driving flow.
GateNews2h ago
Schmidt: Need to focus on the macroeconomic situation and bring inflation down to 2%
ChainCatcher News, according to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve's Smith said that macroeconomic conditions need to be monitored, and the inflation target has been lowered to 2%; it is expected that a large amount of fiscal stimulus measures will be introduced by 2026.
GateNews3h ago
BTC drops 0.99% in 15 minutes: Short-term selling driven by a sudden decline in macro risk appetite and on-chain fund withdrawals
Between 14:30 and 14:45 (UTC) on 2026-03-03, the price of BTC experienced a significant decline, with a return of -0.99%. It fluctuated within the range of 66,366.6 to 67,576.7 USDT, with an amplitude of 1.80%. Short-term volatility intensified, market attention rapidly increased, trading volume expanded accordingly, and overall sentiment leaned towards caution or even panic.
The main driving force behind this anomaly is the decline in global macro risk appetite, with funds accelerating into traditional safe-haven assets. Additionally, expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes and geopolitical tensions contributed to liquidity tightening. On-chain capital flow experienced
GateNews4h ago
70% of assets heavily invested in Bitcoin! Mexican billionaire urges "buy quickly during the dip," and the wealthy dad is also increasing his holdings
Mexican billionaire Ricardo Salinas Pliego has shifted 70% of his investments into Bitcoin, viewing it as an asset to combat inflation with an expected potential eightfold increase in value. Robert Kiyosaki, author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad," warns of an impending stock market crash and remains bullish on Bitcoin, gold, and silver, considering the current market downturn a good buying opportunity. Both billionaires distrust fiat currency and are confident in Bitcoin's scarcity.
区块客4h ago
