The fear index drops to 5, hitting multi-year lows. Bitcoin and Ethereum come under pressure. When will the market rebound?

February 12 News, the cryptocurrency market sentiment has sharply deteriorated. The latest data shows that the Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index has fallen to 5, officially entering the “Extreme Fear” zone, reflecting a rapid loss of investor confidence amid continued price declines and increasing macroeconomic uncertainty. A month ago, the index was still at 26, and a week ago it dropped to 12. The steep decline in a short period highlights a dramatic shift in sentiment.

This change is not an isolated event. The World Uncertainty Index surged above 100,000 in the third quarter of 2025 and remained close to 95,000 in the fourth quarter, far exceeding peaks seen during the pandemic, Brexit, and the Eurozone debt crisis. Geopolitical tensions, unclear policy outlooks, and financial market volatility have collectively amplified risk-averse sentiment and driven capital outflows from high-risk assets.

In this environment, the overall market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has fallen about 22% in 2026. Bitcoin has declined over 10% this year, with a further 14.6% drop since February; Ethereum’s year-to-date decline has expanded to 33.8%. The persistent weakening price structure has further suppressed market activity.

However, historical experience shows that extreme fear often accompanies potential turning points. Analyst Kyle Chassé pointed out that similar sentiment lows after 2018, March 2020, and the FTX incident have all corresponded to phase opportunities. While this does not mean the bottom has been reached, the risk-reward profile is changing.

Another market observer, Ray Youssef, believes Bitcoin may remain range-bound until summer 2026, with possible rebounds of 20% to 30% triggered by short covering, but these are more likely cyclical corrections rather than trend reversals. Multiple macroeconomic and capital structure factors continue to dominate the market rhythm.

At this stage, the crypto market is at a critical point where extreme sentiment, price pressure, and long-term strategic considerations coexist. The next move will still depend on macroeconomic conditions and the speed of capital confidence recovery.