Bitcoin at $80,000 becomes a key defensive line: Three on-chain signals suggest BTC price may rebound above
February 3 News: In early February, Bitcoin (BTC) faced pressure at the start of the month, with risk appetite cooling and funding tightening, causing BTC prices to briefly fall below $80,000. However, multiple on-chain and funding indicators show that selling pressure is easing, and the probability of a phased recovery is building. Although these signals are not yet enough to confirm a trend reversal, they provide a realistic basis for the view that “Bitcoin may not stay below $80,000 for long.”
First, signs of renewed demand are emerging in the U.S. market. The Bitcoin premium index on a major American platform, while still in negative territory, has significantly rebounded. This indicator measures the strength of domestic buying relative to global demand; historically, a shift from negative to positive often accompanies price recovery. Investor Ted pointed out that recent lows have been raised, indicating that buying interest is quietly returning.
Second, BTC prices are approaching or even temporarily falling below the average cost basis of U.S. Bitcoin ETFs. On-chain data shows that this “institutional cost basis” is around $79,000. Past experience suggests that this region is rarely broken for long and often serves as a medium-term support zone. Analyst Whale Factor believes that when prices fall below the institutional average cost, selling willingness decreases, providing a better entry point for patient investors.
Third, positive signals are being observed at the network level. Swiss research firm Swissblock noted that network growth and liquidity began to recover in early February. Similar “resonance” was seen before the major rally in 2021, indicating that ecosystem activity and capital supply are improving, potentially creating conditions for the next upward phase.
It is important to note that cautious voices remain. Alex Thorn of Galaxy Digital warned that if macro liquidity continues to tighten, BTC prices could revisit the long-term moving average. However, based on current on-chain data, ETF cost basis, and demand recovery signs, $80,000 appears more as an important buffer zone rather than the long-term bottom.
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