VanEck Q1 Global Market Outlook: Cryptocurrencies Remain Bullish in the Long Term, Gold Demand Still Strong

Author: VanEck
Translation: Felix, PANews

By 2026, clearer fiscal and monetary signals will support a more proactive risk appetite, with investment opportunities in artificial intelligence, private credit, gold, India, and cryptocurrencies becoming more attractive.
Key Points:

• AI-related stocks experienced a significant correction at the end of 2025, resetting valuations and making AI and related themes more appealing for investment.
• Gold continues to re-emerge as a global currency asset, with pullbacks providing better entry points.
• After a tough 2025, Business Development Companies (BDCs) currently offer more attractive yields and valuations.
• India remains a high-growth potential investment market, while cryptocurrencies are long-term bullish, but short-term signals are complex.

As we enter 2026, the market is in a rare environment: clarity. Although selectivity remains crucial, this clarity around fiscal policy, monetary policy directions, and key investment themes supports a more aggressive risk appetite strategy.
Following a dramatic correction in some AI-related stocks at the end of last year, AI trading now appears more attractive than the “suffocating” highs of October. Notably, while this correction occurred, the underlying demand for computing, tokens, and productivity enhancements remains strong.
Related themes, such as nuclear energy tied to AI-driven power demand, have also experienced significant price adjustments. This adjustment improves the risk-reward profile for investors with a medium- to long-term perspective.
Fewer Unexpected Events in Future Fiscal and Monetary Policies
One of the most important developments for the market is the gradual improvement in the US fiscal situation. Although the deficit remains high, its proportion of GDP has declined from the pandemic-era highs. This fiscal stability helps anchor long-term interest rates and reduces tail risks.
Regarding interest rates, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the current rate levels as “normal,” which is quite meaningful. The market should not expect aggressive or disruptive short-term rate cuts in 2026. Instead, the outlook points to policy stability, moderate adjustments, and fewer shocks. This is also one of the reasons for a clearer market outlook.
Nuclear energy stocks experienced a correction in Q4:

Source: Bloomberg. Data as of December 31, 2025

Business Development Companies Re-emerge as Focus
Business Development Companies (BDCs) faced a tough year in 2025, but this adjustment presents opportunities. With yields still attractive and credit concerns largely digested by the market, BDCs are more appealing now than a year ago.
The underlying management companies (such as Ares) are also in a similar position, with current valuations becoming more reasonable relative to their long-term profitability and past performance.
Gold as a Global Currency Asset
Driven by central bank demand and the global economy gradually moving away from dollar dominance, gold continues to re-emerge as a leading global currency. Although technically gold prices seem overextended, VanEck believes this correction is a good opportunity to increase holdings. Its structural advantages remain intact.
Gold prices are above support levels, but demand remains strong:

Source: Bloomberg. Data as of December 31, 2025

Investment Opportunities in India and Cryptocurrencies
Apart from the US market, India remains a highly potential long-term investment market, benefiting from structural reforms and sustained growth momentum.
In the cryptocurrency space, Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle was broken in 2025, making short-term signals more complex. This divergence supports a more cautious outlook for the next 3 to 6 months. However, VanEck’s internal views are not universally held; Matthew Sigel and David Schassler maintain a more positive stance on recent cycles.