Bitcoin's sudden big dump on December 1 heightened market panic, making investors more cautious as the year comes to a close. Over the past month, Bitcoin has fallen about 7%, pulling back approximately 31% from the historic high of $126,080 set in October, highlighting the market's fragility.
Multiple experts told Decrypt that the current crypto market is extremely sensitive to negative news, while positive factors are difficult to boost prices or sentiment. Caladan's research director Derek Lim pointed out that Bitcoin may experience high volatility fluctuations in the range of $83,000 to $95,000 in the short term. He emphasized that this still constitutes a healthy pullback within a bull market, rather than entering a bear market.
The recent big dump is believed to be related to the lack of key macro data, increased financial uncertainty for MicroStrategy, and market panic over rumors of Tether's bankruptcy. Meanwhile, gold has risen, indicating that investors are seeking safe-haven assets.
Senior researcher Tim Sun stated that to restore the upward trend, Bitcoin needs a stronger macro improvement than the market currently expects. He anticipates that Bitcoin will struggle to see a unilateral strong market before the end of 2025 and is more likely to be in a “bottoming phase.” He pointed out that liquidity and market sentiment remain weak, and the real key is the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's policies in 2026, rather than short-term rate cuts.
Although the Federal Reserve has ended quantitative tightening (QT) and removed structural pressures, analysts remind that the benefits will take time to manifest. Lim reviewed the pattern of 2019 and pointed out that risk assets typically see a strong rise 6 to 12 months after the end of QT. He expects Bitcoin could enter the range of $110,000 to $135,000 in the medium to long term, provided that multiple rate cuts and policy stability are achieved before 2026.
Analysts generally believe that the current pullback does not equate to a bear market. Sun stated that a true bear market means a large-scale withdrawal of institutional funds and a collapse of market expectations, whereas currently there is neither excessive speculation nor an emotional bubble. He emphasized that as long as the market's expectations for the easing cycle in 2026 are not completely overturned, the current situation resembles a bottom consolidation.
However, Lim warned that if Bitcoin falls below $75,000, the existing support structure may fail, triggering a deeper pullback. Overall, the market is under short-term pressure, but the long-term trend still depends on macro policies and institutional capital movements.
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