Crypto Macro News and Global Policy Updates

BlockBeats news, on March 29, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April has decreased to 4.1% (which had briefly risen to 12.4% on March 23), while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 95.9%.

The recent developments in the U.S.-Iran conflict have been escalating continuously. The U.S. 82nd Airborne Division has canceled the "Joint Readiness Training Center" rotation, the normally sea-lifted 82nd Combat Aviation Brigade is being airlifted, and blood supply reserves at U.S. military bases in the Middle East have increased by 500%. The largest overseas hospital of the U.S. Department of Defense—Landstuhl Regional Medical Center in Germany—has suspended some civilian services. The last time this combination of actions occurred was just before the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003. In the midst of this tense atmosphere, Trump suddenly posted that there had been "very, very good and productive conversations" between the U.S. and Iran, and announced that the U.S. would pause military strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure for five days. In the early hours of March 27, Beijing time, Trump posted again, stating that the pause would be extended until April 6. This objective fact contrasts with Trump’s

Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) snapped a four-week inflow streak, posting $296.18 million in net outflows for the week ending Friday. The reversal follows a sustained run of inflows totaling more than $2.2 billion across four consecutive weeks, including $787.31 million, $568.45 million

The US is reportedly preparing for a potential two-month ground invasion of Iran, with discussions on deploying up to 10,000 troops. Analysts suggest this could involve raids on key Iranian sites. The situation is fluid amidst ongoing military conflict and financial market reactions.

Peter Steinberger, the founder of OpenClaw, pointed out that there is a significant difference in the acceptance of AI agents between China and the United States. China is actively promoting OpenClaw, becoming the world's largest testing ground for AI agents, despite the government having restricted state-owned enterprises from using it; while the United States is relatively conservative, with some companies having security concerns about using open AI tools. Steinberger will also join OpenAI to promote the development of Codex technology and is establishing the OpenClaw Foundation, hoping to maintain a neutral stance and promote global collaboration.

Gate News reported that on March 29, Hong Kong Legislative Council member Wu Jiezhuang, together with South Korean National Assembly members, jointly launched the "Hong Kong-Korea Web3 Policy Promotion Alliance." The alliance focuses on five key areas: digital asset regulation, stablecoin mechanisms, artificial intelligence development, blockchain infrastructure interconnection, and regulatory standards. It is reported that this is Asia's first cross-regional civil policy cooperation platform.

The Bitcoin mining industry is facing severe challenges, with mining costs skyrocketing to $88,000, while the Bitcoin price is around $68,000, leading to increased losses for miners. As geopolitical risks and high oil prices take their toll, hash power continues to decline, and industry pressure has also triggered market instability. Many mining companies are beginning to transition to AI and high-performance computing in order to survive.

On March 27, the Ethereum spot ETF saw a net outflow of $48.5445 million, continuing for 8 days. BlackRock's Staked ETH ETF had a net inflow of $39.8575 million, while BlackRock's ETF ETHA had a net outflow of $70.8047 million. The total assets under management are $11.3223 billion, with a net asset ratio of 4.72%.

On March 27, the total net outflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs was $225 million, with BlackRock's IBIT seeing the largest single-day net outflow of $202 million. The current total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is $84.772 billion, with a historical cumulative net inflow of $55.935 billion.

Robert Kiyosaki advocates for long-term investment in non-inflatable assets like oil, real estate, and cryptocurrencies amid market downturn concerns. He focuses on accumulating tangible assets, aiming to prosper during economic crises, and has recently resumed buying before a predicted market collapse in 2026.

Digital asset ETPs saw a peak of over $250B, ending 2025 with $184B AUM, mainly driven by Bitcoin products. The market is evolving, with over 125 new filings indicating a trend toward diversified asset offerings.

Recently, after a continuous net inflow into the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF for seven trading days, a significant outflow occurred, with a net outflow of $163.5 million on the 18th and another outflow of $51.9 million on the 19th, indicating a simultaneous weakening of market funds and prices. Bitcoin's price briefly fell below $70,000, highlighting that the fund flows from the ETF can no longer support its rebound, and the deteriorating macro environment is putting pressure on risk assets, leading to a noticeable contraction in investor preferences. The testing of the $70,000 level has become a barometer for short-term market sentiment.

JPMorgan Chase指出，在中东冲突中，比特币展现出强大的抗跌韧性，资金大规模涌入，交易活动活跃，而黄金和白银则面临资金外流。在高利率和强势美元的压力下，黄金价格下跌约15%。比特币凭借无国界特性成为避险选择，机构投资者也调整了布局，显示黄金流动性下降，而比特币流动性上升。

U.S. Vice President Vance stated that the United States will swiftly withdraw from Iran, believing that all military objectives have been achieved, and the current military actions are to ensure that Iran no longer poses a threat to the U.S. He pointed out that the current rise in oil prices is a temporary reaction to the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict, and that oil prices will fall after the withdrawal.

David Solomon, CEO of Goldman Sachs, acknowledged holding a small amount of Bitcoin in February 2026, contrasting with his 2024 stance of viewing it as speculative. This reflects Wall Street's deepening involvement in crypto, amid legal constraints. The positive community reaction suggests a normalization of Bitcoin among affluent individual and institutional investors.

According to Bloomberg's data, from October 2025 to the end of February 2026, Bitcoin ETF saw an outflow of approximately $9 billion, with about $3 billion recovered so far. Although the overall net outflow still exceeds $6 billion, the inflow and outflow of funds in 2026 have nearly balanced out.

Gate News reports that on March 29, South Korean President Lee Jae-myung nominated Shin Hyun Song, the head of the Monetary and Economic Department of the Bank for International Settlements, as a candidate for the new governor of the Bank of Korea. It is reported that Shin Hyun Song is known as a "pragmatic hawk" and holds a negative attitude towards the Korean won-pegged stablecoin promoted by the Lee administration. Shin Hyun Song believes that in countries with highly volatile exchange rates that are susceptible to capital outflows, stablecoins can easily become a tool for capital flight, and stablecoins pegged to the local currency may accelerate this trend.

France’s BNP Paribas announces the launch of 6 crypto-asset-linked ETNs, offering investors an indirect way to allocate to assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. These ETNs comply with the MiFID II regulatory framework and will be available for subscription to French clients in 2026.