KOSPI Slumps in July on Deleveraging, Not Chip Cycle End; Samsung Q2 Profit Up 19x

According to Hana Securities, KOSPI's recent sharp decline is driven by deleveraging and foreign profit-taking, not a chip cycle slowdown. Samsung's Q2 operating profit surged roughly 19x year-over-year, while TSMC's earnings grew 77%, yet both stocks fell following earnings releases as market focus shifted to whether Big Tech will maintain AI investments.

The research firm attributes the selloff to a combination of foreign investor profit-realization, portfolio adjustments, and subsequent liquidation of margin loans and leveraged products. Single-stock leveraged ETFs acted as an amplifier rather than the initial trigger, forcing daily rebalancing that added pressure on semiconductor names. Hana Securities forecasts KOSPI's recovery to previous highs could take 32 days in a best-case scenario, 150 days under base case assumptions, or 1,148 days if conditions resemble past crises. The key to sustained recovery lies in confirmation that U.S. hyperscalers including Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon continue AI infrastructure investments.