CFTC Proposes Ban on Prediction Markets for Political Ouster via War or Assassination

KALSHI-0.63%
According to the CFTC's Wednesday proposal, prediction markets wagering on outcomes dependent on war or assassination—including the ouster of foreign leaders—would be prohibited. The rules would block markets like those on Polymarket and Kalshi betting on when leaders such as Iran's Supreme Leader would be "out of office," unless they explicitly specify non-violent resolution paths including electoral defeat, resignation, or natural death. One Polymarket contract tracking Iran's leadership by end-2026 has attracted over $14 million in trading volume. The CFTC's 267-page proposal also limits certain sports betting markets and now enters a 45-day public comment period.
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