BTC short-term rebound over 15 min: +0.32%. The escalation of the Iran-Iraq conflict, combined with heightened rate-hike expectations, weighs on medium-term upside

During the 03:00–03:15 UTC period on July 24, 2026, BTC rebounded in the short term by 0.32%, with a price range of 65,078.1–65,318.8 USDT and an amplitude of 0.37%. Despite a modest rebound on the 15-minute timeframe, BTC has fallen overall by about 1.43% over the past 24 hours. It is currently trading around 65,084 USDT, and the market is in a wait-and-see mode after macro risk was released.

The key driver behind this move is a sharp escalation in geopolitical risk. The U.S.–Iran conflict continues to intensify: the U.S. military launched airstrikes on Iranian military targets for the 12th consecutive night, targeting maritime capabilities, missile and drone storage facilities, and air-defense assets. Meanwhile, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a war powers resolution calling for an end to the Iran conflict, but Trump said he is considering launching a “large-scale attack,” increasing policy uncertainty and reinforcing safe-haven sentiment. Oil prices have surged to around $100 per barrel. The futures market has already priced in an 82% probability of a Fed rate hike in September, strengthening expectations for hikes and the DXY, which in turn suppresses valuations of risk assets including BTC.

At the same time, gold pulled back from a two-week high, silver fell 4% in a single day, and precious metals and cryptocurrencies have faced simultaneous pressure, reflecting a cross-asset linkage effect driven by macro factors. However, updates to the CLARITY Act digital asset regulatory bill have provided BTC with some fundamental support, partially offsetting the macro negatives. This helps explain why BTC’s decline has been relatively limited (-1.43%) rather than falling further in lockstep with risk assets. Bitdeer’s mining output growth in June also suggests the network fundamentals remain healthy. Order book data show the buy-sell depth ratio is only 0.20, indicating a severe dominance of sell orders. At 65,076.5 USDT, there is a 0.3175 BTC sell wall, and short-term sell pressure remains.

The key support to watch is 64,650 USDT (24h low). If it breaks, BTC may test the 63,000 psychological level. Resistance is at 66,067 USDT. Going forward, focus on the Fed’s next-week meeting wording, the substantive trajectory of the U.S.–Iran conflict, and whether oil can hold above $100—these factors will determine BTC’s short-term direction.