July 29, Bitcoin edged higher to around $64,000; earlier that same day, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched multiple ballistic missiles from within Iran at the U.S. military’s Al-Azraq air base in Jordan. The U.S. Central Command said all missiles were successfully intercepted. The news quickly reversed oil prices: Brent crude had already fallen to around $83.75 per barrel, while WTI dropped to about $78.55 per barrel.
Iran attacks U.S. base in Jordan, shipping risk in the Strait of Hormuz reignites
Iran claimed it carried out an attack on the Al-Azraq air base located in Jordan; the U.S. Central Command said that at 5:45 p.m. Eastern Time on July 28 (5:45 a.m. Beijing time on July 29), the Iranian Revolutionary Guard launched multiple ballistic missiles from Iran, attempting a surprise strike on U.S. troops stationed in the Middle East, and all missiles were successfully intercepted. The news swiftly changed the direction of oil prices: prior to the report, Brent crude had already fallen to $83.75 per barrel, and WTI had dropped to $78.55 per barrel (the two major benchmarks combined have fallen about 17% over three trading days); after the news broke, WTI’s intraday gain expanded to more than 4%.
Whether oil prices can keep rising depends on whether the attack caused casualties and whether the United States launches a retaliation; if tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalate, shipping safety in the Strait of Hormuz could again be threatened, and the oil-price risk premium may quickly rebound.
Fed July FOMC: Waller’s reaction function and policy judgment on energy shocks
Facing his second FOMC meeting, the Fed chair Waller’s main focus is not whether to raise rates, but how to interpret its policy framework. Waller has already committed to ending forward guidance and will not disclose voting intentions in advance; he has also signaled aspects of the Fed’s “reaction function,” focusing on two types of shocks: the rise in energy prices caused by the Iran war, and increases in semiconductor and power costs driven by companies’ large-scale investment in AI capabilities.
In his Senate testimony on July 15, he said, “Specific price shocks will occur at specific prices, and they’re not within our control,” and that “I don’t think a one-off change in prices is necessarily inflationary.” The Fed currently keeps the policy rate at 3.50% to 3.75%; the May PCE price index rose 4.1% year over year, still far above the 2% target.
Bitcoin ETF outflows accelerate: $692 million out on June 25
According to Farside Investors data, the recent fund flows for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs are as follows:
June 25, 2026: net outflow of about $692 million
June 26, 2026: net outflow of about $445 million
July 24, 2026: net outflow of about $240 million
July 27, 2026: net outflow of about $11.6 million
Chris Perkins, head of digital assets at Franklin Templeton, said that in recent times, more high-risk capital that previously might have flowed into crypto has been shifting toward AI-related themes; meanwhile, Blue Macellari, head of digital assets at T. Rowe Price, believes it’s more like a typical “crypto winter” rather than an abnormal system collapse.
FAQ
What was the oil-price impact result of Iran’s attack on the U.S. base on July 29?
The U.S. Central Command said that multiple ballistic missiles fired by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard attempted to strike the Al-Azraq air base, and all missiles were intercepted; after the oil-market news broke, WTI crude recovered most of the losses from earlier within about 10 minutes, and its intraday gain expanded to more than 4%; Brent crude had previously fallen to around $83.75 per barrel, while WTI dropped to about $78.55 per barrel.
What’s the market focus for the Fed’s FOMC meeting on July 28–29?
The market focus is not on whether rates will be adjusted, but on how Chairman Waller interprets the energy inflation shock and the rise in AI construction costs; Waller has committed to ending forward guidance and will not disclose voting intentions in advance; the Fed currently maintains the policy rate at 3.50%-3.75%, and the May PCE year over year rose 4.1%.
What are the three key indicators of Bitcoin truly finding a bottom?
The article analyzes that three deep indicators determine Bitcoin’s trend: (1) whether U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF capital has switched back to sustained net inflows; (2) whether the Fed begins to ease financial conditions; (3) whether U.S. regulatory policies (including the CLARITY Act) can provide long-term certainty. Until there’s a clear shift in all three, Bitcoin’s rebound may continue to trade in choppy ranges.
