Americans wagered up to $34 billion on offshore prediction markets during the 12-month period ending in April 2026, according to a study commissioned by the Coalition for Prediction Markets, an industry group that includes regulated operators like Kalshi, Crypto.com, and Coinbase. The study, conducted by Rutgers professor and CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee member Harry Crane, compared data from offshore platforms with those serving exclusively U.S. or non-U.S. users to estimate American participation in unregulated markets. The findings emerge amid ongoing regulatory tension between the CFTC and prediction market operators over jurisdiction and oversight standards.
The study estimated that 12.5-31.5% of U.S. prediction market volume occurs on offshore platforms—those that do not allow U.S. users and are not regulated by the CFTC. Based on current third-party estimates of industry growth, U.S.-based activity on offshore prediction markets could grow to an estimated $133 billion in annual volume by 2030, assuming constant relative market shares of regulated and offshore markets, according to the study.
Study Attributes Up to $26.7 Billion in Polymarket Volume to U.S. Users
The findings highlighted Polymarket, the largest offshore platform, estimating that around $10.6-$26.7 billion of its $55.6 billion trailing 12-month trading volume was attributable to U.S. users, even though they are technically disallowed on the platform. Polymarket was pushed offshore by the CFTC in 2022 and said it was given the "green light" to go live in the U.S. last fall. Since that time, it has slowly rolled out its regulated Polymarket U.S. platform.
Data from a Dune dashboard notes that the regulated U.S. version of Polymarket has posted around $5 billion in notional volumes to date. Volumes were not separated by the study due to unreliable data. The study also investigated data from other unregulated markets including Opinion, Predict, Limitless, and Myriad.
Coalition Highlights Regulatory Gaps in Offshore Prediction Markets
According to the Coalition for Prediction Markets, offshore markets represent a significant problem as they are not held to the same standards as those under U.S. regulations. "Americans are using VPNs to access unregulated, offshore prediction market platforms that offer contracts on death and war," the Coalition posted on X. "These platforms are not subject to the same customer verification requirements, anti-money laundering controls, or market integrity oversight that protect American traders," it added.
CFTC Proposes Rules Banning War and Assassination Contracts
The CFTC proposed new rules on Wednesday that would ban market outcomes dependent on war or assassination. The regulator has been mired in tension and scrutiny over the last few months as states and lawmakers push back on its regulation and the growing scale of the prediction markets under its purview. CFTC Chairman Mike Selig said "see you in court" in February as states began challenging the regulator's authority.
Earlier this week, Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren sought answers about the regulator's oversight, questioning whether it could effectively regulate prediction markets while highlighting that its workforce has been cut dramatically.
FAQ
What did the Coalition for Prediction Markets study find about Americans' offshore prediction market activity?
The study found that Americans wagered up to $34 billion on offshore prediction markets during the 12-month period ending in April 2026, representing an estimated 12.5-31.5% of all U.S. prediction market volume.
How much of Polymarket's trading volume was attributed to U.S. users?
The study estimated that around $10.6-$26.7 billion of Polymarket's $55.6 billion trailing 12-month trading volume was attributable to U.S. users, despite the platform technically disallowing American users.
