預測市場平台 Kalshi 顯示，CLARITY 法案在 2027 年前通過的機率在一週內從將近 75% 下滑至 50%，反映出該加密貨幣市場結構法案的通過機率急遽惡化。近幾天的下跌訊號顯示，即使本月初參議院銀行委員會以 15-9 表決通過推進該法案，圍繞該立法在國會中的走向的不確定性仍在上升。交易者指出，參議院行程過於擁擠、就能產生收益的穩定幣仍未釐清的爭議，以及銀行業界持續的反對，都是該法案推進的主要障礙。
CLARITY 法案旨在建立一套聯邦層級的數位資產監管框架，並釐清美國證券交易委員會與商品期貨交易委員會各自的角色。該立法被視為國會迄今最重要的加密貨幣監管行動之一，並承接了多年來關於加密貨幣應如何分類與監督的辯論。
Stablecoin Yield Dispute
A central sticking point remains the treatment of yield-bearing stablecoins. The debate has pitted crypto companies seeking flexibility in offering rewards programs against banks that argue such products could compete directly with traditional deposits.
The issue has been at the center of negotiations for months. In March, CoinDesk reported that lawmakers were attempting to break a legislative deadlock through a compromise on stablecoin yield provisions after disagreements delayed progress on the bill.
More recently, Bloomberg reported that banking groups were pushing for last-minute changes to a compromise crafted by Senators Thom Tillis and Angela Alsobrooks regarding stablecoin rewards. Banks continued to press lawmakers to tighten restrictions on products that could resemble interest-bearing deposit accounts.
Current Legislative Draft
The latest Senate draft reflects ongoing negotiations. According to CoinDesk, the legislation would prohibit interest or yield paid solely for holding payment stablecoins while allowing certain transaction-based rewards programs to continue under specific circumstances.
Banking Industry Position
Banking industry concerns have been echoed publicly by major financial institutions. JPMorgan Chase Chief Financial Officer Jeremy Barnum raised concerns about allowing stablecoins such as USDC to generate yield for holders, reflecting broader industry arguments that such products could disrupt traditional banking models.
支持者倡議
儘管預測市場中的懷疑情緒不斷升高，該立法的支持者仍主張勢頭依然存在。參議員 Cynthia Lummis 作為國會中最具代表性的數位資產立法倡議者之一，仍持續推動該法案的通過。
