預測市場交易量 2 月回落，Opinion 數據大幅縮水

Polymarket 數據：市場押注今年美聯儲降息 1 次概率為 30%

Gate News Report: On March 17th, Polymarket prediction market data shows that the market odds of the Federal Reserve cutting rates once by 25 basis points this year stands at 30%, with a 23% probability of no rate cuts, and a 23% probability of two rate cuts totaling 50 basis points. The prediction market has currently exceeded $10.25 million in trading volume.

Polymarket 新账户押注 15 万美元预测内塔尼亚胡 3 月底前下台

March 17, Polymarket prediction market data showed that a new account wagered $150,000 betting that Netanyahu would step down before March 31. Although his official account released a video to clarify, it raised doubts due to unusual circumstances, with the current prediction probability at 4%. The account had previously been active in NFT trading.

佈宜諾斯艾利斯法院下令封鎖阿根廷Polymarket

布宜諾斯艾利斯法院已下令阻止預測市場平台Polymarket，理由是其屬於未經授權的線上博彩系統。該命令要求限制訪問和移除應用程式，凸顯監管機構對此類平台日益增加的審查。

新地址投入 3.87 萬美元預測 Extended 上線首日 FDV 超過 3 億美元

On March 17, PolyBeats detected that a new address on Polymarket invested $38,700 to buy the option "Extended's FDV exceeds $300 million on its first day of launch," with the current probability at 36%. Extended is a non-custodial perpetual contract exchange based on Starknet, with core mechanisms including unified margin and multi-asset collateral. It raised $6.5 million in funding in April 2024.

「改稿、否則幹掉你」Polymarket 賭徒輸掉 90 萬美元後死亡恐嚇以色列記者

以色列記者法比恩因報導伊朗飛彈落地而收到死亡威脅，輸家在預測市場Polymarket上賭注1400萬美元導致不滿，甚至偽造截圖施壓。事件揭示預測市場的潛在風險，表明金錢驅動可能導致非法行為和操控現象加劇。

當報導成賭局輸贏關鍵：以色列戰地記者遭 Polymarket 賭客死亡威脅

以色列記者因報導伊朗攻擊事件內容，影響高達2000萬美元的賭注，遭Polymarket賭客死亡威脅，引發對新聞自由和公共安全的擔憂。事件凸顯預測市場對媒體報導施加壓力的潛在風險，並引發對相關監管的討論。