川普下令公開 UFO 檔案，Polymarket「外星生命確認」賭盤飆升至20%

Polymarket 帳戶投入 2000 美元押注原油 3 月底前觸及 120 美元

3月19日，预测市场Polymarket上，一个盈利账户以2000美元押注原油将在3月底前触及120美元，当前概率为25%。此外，3月18日以色列对伊朗石油设施的军事打击引发特朗普的声明，称美方对此并不知情。同时，美国启动了1.72亿桶的战略石油储备释储计划。

Polymarket 上 3 個聰明錢賬戶投入 9400 美元押注四月前有新國家襲擊伊朗

3月19日，Polymarket上3個帳戶投入9400美元押注“是否會在四月前有新的國家襲擊伊朗”，目前概率為24%。沙特外交部長和英國政府對此表態，並譴責伊朗對海灣國家的攻擊。

# 量化基金涌入預測市場：六大模型曝光，Polymarket交易策略進入專業化階段

As institutional investors and quantitative funds enter prediction markets, the industry structure is undergoing transformation. In 2026, prediction market trading volume breaks through $13.7 billion, with quantitative strategies gradually becoming mainstream, adopting mature financial models to achieve stable returns. Core methods include LMSR, Kelly Criterion, and Bayesian updates, with technical implementation focusing on data quality and execution efficiency. Retail investors struggle to replicate institutional advantages due to lack of modeling capabilities.

预测市场集体转向：伊朗战争或长期化，通胀与比特币承压加剧

Due to tensions in the Middle East, short-term ceasefire expectations are declining, affecting global inflation and interest rates, and putting pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin. Analysis suggests that high oil prices and high interest rates will continue to suppress the crypto market, with future market trends closely tied to geopolitical developments.

某历史预测 11 連勝地址投入 4 萬美元，押注美伊不會在 4.15 前停火

March 19, Gate News reported that monitoring shows an address on Polymarket invested $40,000 betting on a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran before 4.15, with the current probability of negation at 80%. Trump warned Iran that if it attacks Qatar again, he will take a stronger response and is considering deploying an additional thousand American troops. Meanwhile, the trader's behavior suggests that it is not only betting on the event but may also have profit-taking and stop-loss strategies.

A certain Smart Money address invested $12,000, betting that Ukraine will not abandon joining NATO this year.

On Polymarket, an address wagered $12,000 on Ukraine not joining NATO this year, with a 69% winning probability. Despite US efforts to broker a ceasefire, the Ukrainian government faces public pressure to abandon NATO membership accession, making compromise difficult.