Cardano (ADA) 在新的一年開始之際，以積極的心態持續保持穩定的上升趨勢，並在撰稿當天（星期五）交易價格約在 0.36 美元左右。鏈上指標與衍生品市場的變化顯示出明顯的改善，反映出買盤逐漸增強，投資者的關注度也日益提高。在此背景下，技術信號持續偏向樂觀，重點是未來有形成突破性上漲的可能性，預示著一個上行突破的趨勢即將到來。
Cardano 的鏈上數據與衍生品顯示上升趨勢
CryptoQuant 的綜合數據描繪出一幅對 Cardano 非常樂觀的畫面。現貨市場與期貨市場都出現了來自“鯨魚”的大規模買入指令，這是在市場逐漸降溫且買盤佔優的情況下出現的。這些信號顯示交易者的情緒正在顯著改善，進而引發對未來幾天內可能出現的強勁上漲的期待。
資料來源：CryptoQuant 不僅如此，Cardano 的資金費率數據也進一步支持樂觀的預期。根據 Coinglass 的 OI-加權資金費率指數，目前看多的交易者數量已經超過看空者。
值得注意的是，自星期四以來，資金費率已轉為正值，並在星期五達到 0.0068%，反映多頭 (Long) 願意支付費用給空頭 (Short)。過去的圖表顯示，每當資金費率由負轉正，Cardano 的價格通常都會經歷一段強勁的上漲。
Cardano 資金費率圖 | 資料來源：Coinglass## Cardano 價格預測：新年帶來樂觀情緒，ADA 期待突破下降楔形形態
Cardano (ADA) 的價格在下降楔形的上方阻力位遇到強烈阻力——該形態由十月中旬開始形成，連接高點與低點的兩條趨勢線匯聚而成。在星期一遭遇阻擋後，ADA 價格在星期三下跌近 10%。不過市場迅速反彈：星期四價格回升 6.9%，到星期五已接近上述重要的阻力趨勢線。
在樂觀的情境下，如果 ADA 能夠明確突破下降楔形，則反彈勢頭很可能延續至接近 0.42 美元的阻力區域——該區域與 50 日指數移動平均線（(EMA)）重合，具有重要的技術意義。
ADA/USDT 日線圖 | 資料來源：TradingView 動能指標也傳遞出改善的信號。日線 RSI 指標目前在 43，正朝著中性區域 50 上升，顯示賣壓逐漸減弱。為使上升趨勢更為穩固，RSI 需要突破並穩守在 50 以上。同時，MACD 指標已形成多頭交叉並持續維持，進一步鞏固市場偏向復甦的看法。
然而，調整風險仍然存在。如果 ADA 無法突破並反轉向下，價格可能會繼續回測星期三的底部區域，約在 0.32 美元左右。
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