BitLiuBei

February 11 BTC/ETH:
Non-farm data is expected to be exaggerated by over a million, possibly leading to the next sharp decline!
The non-farm employment figures and unemployment rate will be announced tonight. Wall Street has issued early warnings that the annual benchmark revision will eliminate over a million jobs, which were previously just face-saving data for the Federal Reserve rate cut meeting. The actual downward revision will definitely cause the Fed to reconsider inflation data, likely triggering market fear and a sharp decline!
BTC
Currently, the K-line shows a clear bearish pattern,

Don't try to bottom fish, don't try to bottom fish, don't try to bottom fish!
Three times for emphasis, the current market is clearly in mid-term bear market, with weak rebounds, excessive selling pressure, no significant capital inflow. Short-term counter-trend longs should take profits quickly. Never think about trying to change the pattern; rebounds won't be too high, and once selling resumes, it will be a waterfall. So the first priority is to avoid unnecessary risks and go short with the trend!
Yesterday's short position once again proved prophetic. Bitcoin rebounded to 7000 before shorti

February 10th BTC/ETH:
A rebound is not a bull return, just a dead cat bounce at the end!
Currently, the market has rebounded from the lowest point by ten thousand points, giving everyone hope. However, the reality is that institutional players are still gradually clearing their positions, meaning the true bottom has not yet arrived. The key point regarding the Federal Reserve's rate cut timing is: there will be no rate cut in March-April; only after Bush takes office in June is there a certain chance of a cut. Meanwhile, other countries are beginning to tighten monetary policy, making a rate

Is it too late to call the shots? You guys decide.
To be honest, today’s strategy missed the mark by half a step. Why half a step? Last Friday, I bought long at the bottom around 6400 with a target of 7200, and at the top, I set a daily resistance at 7200 to take profits and reversed to short. The market indeed moved as expected. When I updated the post today, the market started to retrace. The rebound didn’t give a good entry opportunity, so it’s half a step.
The main idea is to provide everyone with an overall framework for trading, to avoid mistakes that could lead to losses. From 9700 and

February 9th BTC/ETH:
A rebound rather than a reversal. The Federal Reserve's probability of cutting interest rates in March is only 23.2%!
Over the weekend, the market surged twice, marking a successful conclusion to Friday’s low-volatility strategy. Bitcoin is expected to rise from 6400 to 7200, and Ethereum from 1860 to 2100. Although the market surged significantly, the overall trend remains in the mid-term bear market. The low probability of rate cuts is not optimistic, so long-term bottom fishing should wait. Key events this week: Tuesday inflation expectations, Wednesday non-farm payrol

Don't ask how much more, bottom-fishing?
The real-time market trend is the answer!
U.S. stocks opened higher with little gain, and the February inflation index was announced at 3.5%, lower than the expected 4%, which also boosted market sentiment in the short term. The market rebounded nearly 15% from its lowest point. Actually, the biggest current problem is that the market is facing a series of declines, and instinctive fear drives more buying. Conversely, this can also be seen as a bullish factor because long leverage has been largely wiped out. This is the correct understanding of buying w

February 6th BTC/ETH:
The market plunged again late at night to the 60,000 level, is this the final liquidation of the last big whale hunting the panic sellers?
As of now, BTC has retraced 50% from its all-time high in just four months, with a single-day drop of over 10 points. The 70,000 level is where many spot traders have their main positions. Breaking below this psychological level has accelerated chain reactions of selling. Big whales are also being forced to cut losses. Yesterday, the peak was at 7,200, with the secondary target at 2,150, and the fourth target at 6,500, with 1,900 succe

If I don't rely on others to lift me up, I will rise to the heights of the blue sky on my own?
Three weeks of continuous decline, Bitcoin has dropped over 30,000 points, reminding me of a line from Water Margin: "Today falls, tomorrow falls again." Doesn't that cold the hearts of the many investors? But the always passionate investors who are full of tears have already exploded, those who cut losses have already done so, leaving only the believers lying flat with faith still intact!
The current market is characterized by a break followed by a chain of sell-offs and stampede effects. Everyone k

February 5th BTC/ETH:
Bitcoin drops below the critical 7,000 level, is the four-year cycle curse still in effect?
First, the main force on Wall Street's spot ETF has sold off $1.2 billion in one week, totaling $5.5 billion in sales over three months. Slightly smaller institutions are also rebounding at high levels to shake out weak hands. The panic institutions are either on the verge of liquidation or already being liquidated. It was previously mentioned that dropping to 7,450 is definitely not the bottom. This is a chain reaction of panic selling caused by fear. Those who can't hold on are f

February 4th BTC/ETH:
Late-night market drops sharply, but institutions are buying in the opposite direction?
The price is not much different from yesterday. The difference is that some people's positions are gone. As mentioned before, 7450 is not the bottom, just a stage of rebound from the bottom. On the news front, the federal shutdown has ended, but geopolitical tensions continue. What’s different is that on-chain institutional funds are starting to buy in. Whether the market can stabilize depends on whether the main players can offload their holdings!
BTC
Currently, the weekly support lev

February 3rd BTC/ETH:
The market has started to rebound. Is it time to clear out the long positions?
Previously, I have to mention today’s violent rebound in precious metals. As long as geopolitical tensions do not end, the market will not surge significantly, which also limits liquidity in the crypto space. The direct result is that today’s overall market is sideways. Therefore, as long as the US stock market opens lower tonight, the probability of a rebound will increase significantly!
BTC
The current market is in a clear consolidation pattern. The bullish engulfing candlestick and the golde

Are all the waterfall declines driven by fear?
There's a saying: "When others are fearful, I am greedy." In the psychology of the market makers, it's the opposite. The first round of dips that should have been a breakout already happened, leaving only the ever-hopeful retail investors to start bottom fishing. Now that the second round of decline has begun, it's time to give up and start reducing positions. Pushing the market up again becomes much easier!
On the smaller timeframes, a double bottom pattern is forming. During the day, everyone should watch for long positions at the bottom, with t

February 2nd BTC/ETH:
A waterfall decline has everyone panicking, are the whales starting to surrender?
Last night, the market experienced a second dip. Rumors say that Trump’s son Bannon, also known as the 10.11 insider whale, has liquidated 600 million in Auntie’s assets, and Yilihua’s 20 billion leverage has been reduced to just 500 million. They are starting to cut losses and reduce leverage. Speaking of whales, they are just a bit bigger than retail investors on Wall Street!
BTC
The current market has already approached the weekly support level. A second dip at this point is beneficial fo

After 300 days, BTC drops below 8 figures!
How many more are out on the rooftops bragging?
Honestly, it's quite sad. The market is roaring again. As of now, longs have been liquidated for $2.4 billion. Although expected, it’s still hard to accept when it actually happens. In two weeks, the price dropped from 9700 to 7500, a plunge of 20,000 points. This time is different from the black swan on 10.11; that was an unexpected event. This time, the lack of confidence due to no rate cuts has led major players to exit one after another. Who knows when we will see the 120K Bitcoin again!
We also disc

How should I boast about myself?
I'm really lucky, catching the tops and bottoms all by myself!
On Thursday, the warning was that selling pressure was overloaded, the black swan market plummeted, and the price below 8800 dropped to 8100. Overall, there was a 7000-point space. On Friday, I built a bottom and opened long positions to catch the rebound, buying at 8180. Currently, there is also a 2700-point space!
Ethereum's movements are quite tricky, but within the predicted range of stabbing and defense. The overall space is about 90 points. In the future, pay attention to the rebound, at least

January 30th BTC/ETH:
After the Federal Reserve meeting, the return of the black swan signals market uncertainty, and the market is in distress!
Last night, precious metals plunged from high levels, and cryptocurrencies followed with a waterfall decline, liquidating $1.6 billion in 24 hours. Yesterday, it was clearly stated that the market would experience a round of secondary decline, with a rebound above 8800, and the lowest could be down to 8100. A 7000-point drop was indeed a bit unexpected. The market is like life—surprises and unexpected events coexist. Planning ahead can largely avoid s

If interest rates are not cut, there will be an avalanche, and the sequelae will appear?
After the U.S. market, I washed my face again, and I said before that all the news orientation is to be bearish, but it is the key factor of the Fed meeting, so last night the Fed was sure that it would not cut interest rates, so after the main force betting on interest rate cuts left, the market will usher in a turnaround? Obviously there is no such possibility, so even if there is a rebound during this period, it will only make everyone take a short position, and today the sequelae appear, and the market

January 29 BTC/ETH:
Silver hits a new all-time high. Will the flow of funds in the crypto market rebound again?
It was mentioned yesterday that the Federal Reserve meeting will 100% not cut interest rates. Early this morning, several tech companies released earnings reports, and the market's positive expectations have already been priced in. Coupled with the announcement of no rate cuts, a correction in the US stock market and the crypto market is an inevitable result. That’s why I’ve been advising caution in trading. Yesterday, after a short rebound from 8870 to above 9000, I reversed my posi

Is this any different from picking up money?
The Federal Reserve Council has already stated that there is a 100% chance they will not cut interest rates.
The market swings back and forth between bullish and bearish, perfectly aligning with predictions. The bottom at 8870 rebounded and looks bullish, reaching up to 9050. There is nearly 2000 points of short-term space. This is also where we positioned our short orders. The market has indeed fallen back as expected, currently down by 1500 points. Besides that, can I boast about how awesome this is?
Buying the dip and catching the top in one go.