Is Bitcoin's sideways movement at high levels a sign of a breakout buildup or a false rebound?

Currently, the overall market liquidity is frighteningly low, driven by conflicts between the yellow hair and the Middle East, which pushes up crude oil prices, prompting safe-haven capital inflows that increase crypto volatility. The market is approaching the 80,000 mark, boosting retail FOMO sentiment. Is the bull really returning?

① The most crucial point is interest rate cuts! According to the Federal Reserve's 2026 rate cut dot plot, there’s only a slim chance of a cut in September. So, the question is: why would the main players use high-interest-rate money to pump the market? The institutions pushing the market are the real movers. Without policy support, there's no reason to pump. Is kindness trying to rescue retail investors stuck halfway up the mountain?

② Considering the national situation, Trump's tariffs and Middle East issues essentially reflect a weakening U.S. economy, which is bleeding externally while forcing the Fed to cut rates. Additionally, attracting funds back to the U.S. through safe-haven assets is a three-bird-one-stone strategy!

③ From the market structure perspective, the weekly and monthly charts are in mid-bear market, with rebounds but no reversal. Currently, the biggest resistance is at 7,950-8,100, where chips are concentrated (trapped positions). Only if the daily chart can break through these levels and stabilize above 8,400 will the weekly chart be considered to have returned to a bullish trend.

④ At present, the market has not experienced a significant daily-level pullback, which is unhealthy overall. The rebound struggles to break through the 80,000 mark. The market has become immune to Trump's and Iran's verbal sparring. Ending conflicts may not bring much positive news. Market reactions always precede news. Above 79k, it’s possible to buy in stages; a quick drop is faster than a rally. Anyone shouting about a bull return now is just committing a crime! $BTC