Memory price growth is slowing down? Institutions estimate Q2 gains narrow to 30%, with further cooling in the second half

Market research firm SigmaIntell’s latest forecast indicates that although global DRAM prices will continue to rise, the rate of increase will clearly slow to 30% to 50% from Q2 2026 through the second half of the year. With strong AI demand and consumer electronics remaining weak, the DRAM market is undergoing a structural reshuffle, and the supply-demand gap continues to widen.

(Samsung and SK hynix abandon short-term contracts and sign three- to five-year long-term agreements— is the rush to lock in prices because they’re afraid the follow-up won’t be able to keep going?)

The Q2 growth rate will narrow to 30% to 50%, and prices will stabilize at high levels in the second half

According to a report cited by the Korean media, SigmaIntell’s report shows that the global DRAM average price growth rate is expected to ease from 70% in Q1 2026 to around 30% to 50% in Q2.

2025Q1 to 2026Q2 mainstream DRAM contract price quarter-over-quarter growth trend (%)

A company analyst said DRAM prices will still maintain an upward trend in Q2, but the growth rates across different product lines will diverge significantly: “DDR4’s growth rate will narrow markedly, while DDR5 and LPDDR5X still have room for further increases.”

Entering the second half of 2026, SigmaIntell expects the growth rate to be further reduced to 5% to 20%, and prices are expected to stabilize at high levels by year-end.

The analyst attributes this to three key factors: DRAM manufacturers’ capacity allocation gradually stabilizing, AI server and cloud service providers (CSP) gradually winding down emergency stockpiling demand, and cooling of market panic-driven buying sentiment. At the same time, as demand from consumer electronics and IT products weakens, pressure from DRAM supply shortages will also be eased to a certain extent.

AI demand sparks a supercycle, shifting the supply-demand situation from surplus to shortage

From a more macro supply-demand structure perspective, SigmaIntell predicts that the global DRAM supply-demand balance will move from an 8% oversupply in 2025 to a 12% undersupply in 2026. This wave begins in the second half of 2025, driven by an AI-powered DRAM supercycle, and is expected to continue throughout 2026.

2025–2026 global DRAM demand structure forecast: demand focus shifts from consumer electronics to AI servers

On the demand side, there is a clear split into two extremes. AI server DRAM demand is expected to rise year over year by as much as 105%, while growth for traditional server DRAM demand is only about 3%.

In high-bandwidth memory (HBM), SigmaIntell expects its share of global DRAM wafer production capacity to exceed 20% this year, and HBM bit demand is also expected to grow year over year by 110%. As HBM4 enters mass production ramp-up this year, the expanding capacity share for HBM will further squeeze the available capacity space for DDR products.

Consumer electronics demand weakens, and low-end products are hit first

Compared with the strong growth on the AI side, DRAM demand from consumer electronics and IT products is expected to decline year over year, and its share of total DRAM bit consumption will fall from 54% in 2025 to 42% in 2026. The categories with the largest decline are expected to center on low-cost PCs, low-end smartphones, and IoT devices.

Judging from contract price trends, by the end of Q1 2026, server DRAM contract prices have already risen by 3 to 4 times compared with Q2 2025. Specifically, DDR4 is up about 4 times and DDR5 is up about 3.5 times. DRAM for consumer electronics and IT products, however, began to build momentum only starting from Q4 2025 due to supply shortages, so by the end of Q1 the increase is relatively lower, at roughly 2 to 2.5 times.

Cost pressures for memory and other components have gradually been passed on to end-product selling prices, and rising selling prices are likely to further suppress demand for low-end products, creating a vicious cycle of demand moving downward. SigmaIntell warns that consumer electronics and IT players will find it difficult to continue fully covering all markets and product lines, and they will have to make clear strategic trade-offs.

(Samsung’s profit surges 755%! Reportedly DRAM quotes rise again by 100%, and 32 GB memory could jump past $400)

In this article: Is the memory rally cooling down? An agency’s assessment says the Q2 increase narrows to 30%, and it will further cool in the second half. Earliest appearance: on blockchain news ABMedia.