Proposal to Regulate Prediction Markets Gains Steam After Insider Trading Allegations Involving Iran War

Kalshi "Haminin Abdication" $50 million contract sparks controversy! CEO issues a call: Reject death arbitrage

Kalshi recently caused controversy due to the death news of Hameini, leading to a surge of funds into related prediction contracts, which resulted in settlement chaos and a trading halt. Although Kalshi refunded users with a net loss of approximately $2.2 million, the platform's promotional activities were criticized and prompted U.S. lawmakers to call for investigations into similar assassination-related contracts. Polymarket also faced controversy, as the settlement of certain contracts angered users and raised suspicions of insider trading.

Polymarket China, Iran "Information Battlefield": Over $500 million in bets, mysterious accounts enter precisely, sparking insider allegations

With the US and Israel conducting airstrikes on Iran, the prediction platform Polymarket has become an instant market, with trading volume exceeding $500 million, attracting a large number of traders. Profiters and losers coexist, and allegations of insider trading have also emerged, sparking debates over market transparency and ethics. This event highlights the advantages and disadvantages of prediction markets.

Polymarket Cools Off: First Monthly Drop Since August Despite $23.4B Volume

Statistics indicate that polymarkets had the first down month since August 2025. The total volume amounted to 23.4 billion in February 2026. Although this is a decrease, the figure is an indicator of high attendance. Following several months of aggressive expansion, a deceleration was predicted.

Polymarket market bets that the probability of Bitcoin dropping to $60,000 in March this year is 40%

Foresight News reports that the latest data from Polymarket shows that the market's odds of Bitcoin falling to $60,000 this March are 40%, falling to $65,000 are 76%, rising to $75,000 are 50%, and rising to $80,000 are 25%. Currently, the trading volume in this prediction market exceeds $8.51 million.

Kalshi's "Death Clause" Sparks Controversy: Traders Betting on Khamenei's Death Suffer Heavy Losses

On March 3, news reports indicated that the prediction market Kalshi sparked controversy due to the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei. Traders expressed dissatisfaction with the "death clause," and returns were modest. Market trading volume surged, but improper operations face regulatory risks. Analysts warn that prediction markets need to balance commercialization and compliance, and trading on sensitive events should be approached with caution.

"Gambling is not investing": U.S. lawmakers form an alliance to pressure prediction markets, regulatory disputes over platforms like Polymarket escalate

The prediction market industry in the United States faces political and regulatory pressures. An alliance led by Congressman Mick Mulvaney is calling for increased enforcement, restricting market expansion, and emphasizing that it is essentially gambling that must comply with relevant laws. Meanwhile, some lawmakers are pushing for stricter regulations, especially targeting certain controversial prediction events. The prediction market industry is actively countering, arguing that current regulations should be overseen by the CFTC, and that the industry is still growing rapidly, exploring new product models to expand market influence.