Bitcoin Tests Key Resistance: Is a Fifth Wave Drop Coming?

Bitcoin trades at $66827 near $68500 resistance with 507M ETF inflows as traders monitor 60000 support and fifth wave risk.

Bitcoin is testing a critical resistance zone after stabilizing above multiweek support. Traders are assessing whether the move signals continuation or another leg lower.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $66,827. The cryptocurrency has rebounded from levels near $63,000.

However, price remains inside a broader sideways structure. Market participants are watching resistance levels and lower time frame patterns for direction.

Price Structure Remains Range Bound

Bitcoin continues to hold above $62,594, which has acted as support for three weeks. As long as this level holds, the wider range remains valid.

No confirmed breakout has occurred. The immediate resistance zone stands between $65,609 and $68,457.

Price is pressing toward the $68,500 area, which aligns with the 100 period EMA on the four hour chart. This level is acting as a technical barrier.

$BTC
Bitcoin appears to have formed a local low and is now moving toward the first resistance zone between $65,609 and $68,457. The support we’ve tracked for the past three weeks continues to hold, with price staying above $62,594. As long as that level remains intact, the… pic.twitter.com/1sSwdqUEMm

— More Crypto Online (@Morecryptoonl) February 28, 2026

A sustained move above $70,600 could open the path toward $72,271. The $72,000 to $75,000 range serves as a broader ceiling.

As long as Bitcoin trades below $75,000, the larger structure remains capped. Technical indicators show moderate strength.

The relative strength index stands near 60, and it reflects positive momentum.

The MACD line remains above the signal line, and the histogram shows steady upside pressure.

Bitcoin also trades above the 50 period EMA near $66,900. This positioning supports near term stability.

However, expansion remains limited while price stays below the 100 period EMA.

Micro Structure and Fifth Wave Scenario

Short term charts show small impulsive moves within the range. Analysts note that sideways markets often invalidate lower time frame setups.

Corrective conditions tend to produce overlapping price action. Traders are watching for a clear five wave decline on lower time frames.

If such a structure forms, it could increase the probability of a larger fifth wave lower. Degree and time frame context remain critical.

A five wave move on a 15 minute chart does not confirm a broader trend change. Higher time frame direction remains dominant.

In range conditions, smaller impulses often retrace quickly. If Bitcoin breaks below $60,000, selling pressure could increase.

Market analysis points to $57,500 as a potential downside level. A deeper move toward $52,000 remains possible if weakness expands.

Analysts state that stability above $60,000 keeps the rebound scenario active. Buyers may respond at this psychological level. A breakdown would shift focus toward downside continuation.

Related Reading: Why Bitcoin’s $100K “Resistance” Is Artificial, Not Technical

ETF Inflows and Broader Developments

Spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded inflows of approximately $507 million. This data reflects ongoing institutional and retail participation.

Ethereum spot ETFs added $157 million, while XRP products recorded $3.09 million. These inflows coincide with Bitcoin holding above key moving averages.

Market participants are monitoring volume and momentum closely. Resistance near $68,500 remains a near term test.

Policy developments are also drawing attention. Missouri lawmakers advanced legislation to create a state run Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Fund.

The proposal mandates a five year holding period and cold storage for donated Bitcoin.

The next sessions may determine whether Bitcoin clears resistance or forms a lower high.

A confirmed move above $71,600 could reduce immediate downside risk. Failure to break higher may renew focus on the potential fifth wave drop scenario.