Bitcoin and gold trends diverge; cooling speculative sentiment is the root of the disagreement

Since early 2024, gold prices have cumulatively increased by 153%, while Bitcoin has declined approximately 30% over the same period. Jurrien Timmer, Head of Global Macro at Fidelity, points out that this disparity stems from a structural cooling of speculative sentiment: historically, Bitcoin’s strong rally has been highly correlated with speculative booms in tech stocks, whereas gold more purely tracks the expansion rate of the global M2 money supply. The underlying driving logic of the two has clearly diverged under current market conditions.

Differences in Macro Driving Logic Between Bitcoin and Gold

(Source: Fidelity)

Timmer characterizes gold as a pure “hard currency” asset, with its trend closely linked to the growth of the global M2 money supply. Each significant correction tends to attract short-term buyers, allowing it to perform well in environments with abundant liquidity but cooled speculation.

Bitcoin’s situation is more complex. It also possesses the characteristics of a hard currency but carries a high beta coefficient, meaning its price volatility is amplified by both liquidity and speculative sentiment.

Historical Correlation of Bitcoin, Gold, and M2 Money Supply

2017–2018: Software stocks rose about 58% annually, and Bitcoin surged significantly during the same period.

2020–2021: Software stocks increased about 93% annually, with Bitcoin reaching all-time highs.

2022: Software stocks plummeted about 58%, Bitcoin crashed despite high global M2 supply.

2026 Outlook: M2 continues to grow steadily, but speculative enthusiasm in tech stocks is in a bear market phase, preventing Bitcoin from enjoying liquidity benefits simultaneously.

This indicates that M2 growth underpins Bitcoin’s long-term trend, but the cycle of tech stock speculation often amplifies Bitcoin’s short- to medium-term price swings. Currently, gold is steadily rising with M2 expansion, while Bitcoin lags due to a lack of speculative catalysts.

The Shift Toward Gold in the Crypto Market: Binance Futures and Exchange Reserves Decline

Demand for gold within the crypto market is also evident. Binance launched 24/7 gold futures trading on January 5 this year, with total trading volume approaching $35 billion. The most active single-day volume exceeded $4 billion, with weekly averages around $4.7 billion (according to analyst Darkfost data). After two days of sharp declines, Binance gold futures trading activity accelerated, indicating that crypto investors are actively positioning for traditional hard assets through crypto channels.

Meanwhile, CryptoQuant data shows that the total value of Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and major stablecoins held on Binance has fallen to about $102 billion, the lowest since April 2025, down from approximately $140 billion in August 2025—a decrease of $38 billion. This decline reflects overall asset price drops and a trend during bear markets where users withdraw funds to safeguard accounts, implying short-term liquidity contraction and more cautious trading positions.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why will gold outperform Bitcoin significantly from 2024 to 2026?

Gold’s rise is mainly driven by the growth of the global M2 money supply, a relationship that remains persistent. Although Bitcoin also has hard currency attributes, its strong rally has historically been highly correlated with speculative booms in tech stocks. Currently, tech stock speculation remains in a bear market, preventing Bitcoin from benefiting from liquidity expansion.

What is the relationship between Bitcoin’s trend and the global M2 money supply?

M2 growth is a long-term foundation for Bitcoin’s appreciation but not a sufficient condition. Historical data shows that Bitcoin’s largest gains occurred when M2 expansion and tech stock speculation rose simultaneously; even with ample M2, if speculative sentiment cools, Bitcoin can decline sharply, as seen in 2022.

What does the surge in Binance gold futures trading volume indicate?

With total trading approaching $35 billion, Binance gold futures suggest that crypto investors are actively seeking exposure to gold through crypto channels. To some extent, this reflects a structural shift where, during periods of weak Bitcoin performance, funds are moving into traditional hard asset tokenized products.