Bitcoin bear market lasts five months, with 74% of long-term holders' profits quickly shrinking
February 25 News: Bitcoin price has fallen about 50% from its all-time high, with 74% of long-term holders’ profits rapidly shrinking. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost pointed out that as Bitcoin approaches its cost basis, the average profit for long-term holders continues to decline. This trend typically signals the arrival of the capitulation phase in a bear market.
Glassnode reports that the 90-day moving average of realized profit and loss for Bitcoin has fallen below 1, indicating the market has entered an overextended loss realization phase. Historical data shows that such a bear market lasts at least six months before market liquidity begins to recover. Analyst James Check noted that Bitcoin has been declining for nearly five months, with weekly volatility soaring above 150%, and the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) at historically oversold levels. Large amounts of Bitcoin at high price levels are flowing into new holders.
Additionally, analyst James Van Straten reported that the amount of Bitcoin in loss has reached 10 million coins, the fourth-highest record in history. It is expected that next week, circulating supply will reach 20 million coins, with about 50% in loss. Van Straten pointed out that this level of capital loss is often an important signal of the bottom formation in a bear market.
Technical analysis shows that Bitcoin experienced a slight rebound during early Asian trading, but overall bearish sentiment remains dominant. The price trend has formed lower peaks, and key support levels are still holding. Market observers believe that, based on historical patterns, after long-term holders’ loss pressures are released, Bitcoin may see the next rebound opportunity.
Investors should monitor changes in long-term holders’ cost basis, loss supply, and key support levels, as these will be important indicators for judging the duration of the Bitcoin bear cycle and potential bottom.
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