BlockBeats News, February 20 — According to The Wall Street Journal, sources familiar with the matter reveal that Trump is weighing a preliminary, limited military strike against Iran to pressure it into agreeing to a nuclear deal. This strike plan, if authorized, could be implemented within days and would target a few military or government facilities. If Iran continues to refuse Trump’s demand to cease uranium enrichment activities, the United States will launch a large-scale attack on the regime’s facilities — potentially aiming to overthrow the Tehran government.
After weeks of deliberation, it remains unclear how seriously Trump is considering this plan, though senior aides have repeatedly presented it to him. U.S. officials say recent discussions have focused more on larger-scale strikes, but Trump has not yet decided to order any attack. Some U.S. officials and analysts warn that such strikes could provoke Iranian retaliation, potentially dragging the U.S. into a broader Middle East war and endangering regional allies.
Additionally, market sources indicate that Iran, in a letter to the UN Secretary-General and Security Council members, stated, “If attacked, all bases, facilities, and assets of hostile forces in the region will be considered legitimate targets within Iran’s defensive response framework.” Trump’s remarks suggest “a real risk of military aggression.” Iran does not seek escalation or war and would not initiate conflict first.
According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of the U.S. striking Iran before the end of February has risen to 26%, the probability before March 15 to 52%, and the probability before the end of March to 60%.
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
On-chain tracking of Polymarket's Khamenei market insider: 521 addresses precisely lurking, with a few entities targeting with precision
Author: Frank, PANews
In the early morning of February 28, 2026, the global geopolitical landscape was shaken as the Iran-U.S. conflict reignited. This black swan event that altered the geopolitical pattern triggered intense chain reactions in the physical world, and similarly caused a chaotic capital vortex in the digital realm.
On the decentralized prediction market Polymarket, a contract titled “Will Khamenei step down as Iran’s Supreme Leader before February 28?” has accumulated a trading volume of $81.63 million. As the news of the physical world’s death was gradually confirmed, the settlement of this massive smart contract faced severe paralysis and controversy. Both Yes proposals were rejected twice, and the market was forced into the final arbitration stage of the UMA oracle. This dispute once again sparked reflections on the judgment of prediction markets, and multiple addresses were exposed, suspected of being insider addresses that seized over $1 million in profits.
PANews5h ago
Polymarket: The probability that OPN's FDV surpasses $500 million one day after launch is approximately 67%
ChainCatcher Message: The probability of Opinion on Polymarket issuing tokens on March 5th has risen to 95.5%. One day after the launch of OPN, the probability of FDV surpassing $250 million is temporarily reported at 94%, and the probability of surpassing $500 million is temporarily reported at 67%.
GateNews9h ago
Forecast market bets that the amount wagered on Khamenei's assassination reaching death exceeds $500 million, and U.S. senators are calling for restrictions on related contracts.
With the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, related prediction markets have sparked criticism in U.S. politics, with some senators calling for restrictions on contracts related to individual deaths. Trading volume has surged significantly, and platforms are facing regulatory ambiguities and user doubts, while regulators may tighten scrutiny. The legality and morality of prediction markets will become new issues.
GateNews10h ago
Kalshi "Iran Leader Resignation" $50 Million Prediction Contract Settles Controversy! CEO: Rejecting Death Arbitrage
After Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei's death, the prediction market Kalshi refunded $2.2 million due to contract settlement disputes, as its original intention was to avoid profiting from death events. This incident has prompted US lawmakers to call for a thorough investigation of war-related contracts and question the morality and fairness of the market. Other platforms like Polymarket are also facing controversy over similar issues.
CryptoCity12h ago
