On Polymarket, the probability that USD.AI's FDV exceeds $150 million on the day after launch is 84%

Prediction platforms are becoming the digital battlefield of postmodern warfare

On February 28th, the United States and Israel launched airstrikes against Iran, resulting in the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei, shaking Middle Eastern geopolitics. Prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi quickly emerged, with traders betting on related events and trading volumes surging. However, this phenomenon also raised questions about moral boundaries, especially the risks of insider trading and market manipulation. Kalshi decided not to profit from the death event to uphold ethical standards, while Polymarket attracted significant funds due to its high anonymity. Overall, this war has exposed the double-edged nature of prediction markets, indicating the need for stricter regulation in the future.

Hamini's death tests the prediction market bottom line: Kalshi decides to refund "don't profit from dead people," Polymarket reports insider trading involving millions of dollars

Kalshi announces the activation of the "Death Exemption Clause" to handle the Hamini market, refunding all fees and settling at the last transaction price before death. This has sparked some user backlash, who believe that restricting profits is unfair. Meanwhile, Polymarket faces insider trading allegations, with six traders profiting approximately $1 million before the Iran airstrike. The market is under widespread scrutiny.

Pre-war predictions for Iran? Polymarket traders bet on U.S.-Iran war, making a profit of $1.2 million, raising questions

Polymarket experienced abnormal betting before the US-Iran airstrikes, with six new wallets totaling a profit of $1.2 million, raising concerns about insider trading and increasing global regulatory pressure. U.S. Congress members have proposed legislation to ban officials from participating in prediction markets, and many countries consider them illegal gambling. The accuracy of prediction markets and their potential ethical issues have become hot topics of discussion.

Due to the increase in Polymarket trading activity, Polygon's POL burn volume in February reached a new all-time high

Odaily Planet Daily reports that Polygon's official X account announced that February's POL burn amount reached a record high, with a total of 28.2 million POL burned. Earlier reports indicate that February's trading volume for Polymarket, the most important application in the Polygon ecosystem and a prediction market, also hit a historic high.

$500 million market boom forecast "big gamble on Iran," someone makes $510,000 through insider trading, the U.S. will angrily call for legislation to ban it

During the global financial market closure, over $529 million in funds flooded into the prediction market, with investors betting on a US-Israel airstrike on Iran. Six new accounts made precise bets before the airstrike and profited $1.2 million, triggering insider trading allegations. American lawmakers condemned such behavior and plan to introduce legislation to ban it. The CFTC has also issued a warning, emphasizing that such transactions may be illegal.

A certain trader placed three bets on Arsenal to win within three days, with a total profit of 3.67 million USD

Odaily Planet Daily reports that according to Lookonchain monitoring, a trader named majorexploiter spent $4.53 million USDC nine hours ago betting on Arsenal Football Club to win on March 1, 2026, and earned a profit of $2.42 million. Data shows that within less than 3 days, he placed 3 consecutive related bets, all of which were profitable, with a total profit of approximately $3.67 million.