U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Added 130,000 Jobs in January, Far Exceeding Market Expectations of 55,000, Unemployment Rate Dropped to 4.3%
The “better-than-expected” employment data sharply undermined Fed rate cut expectations, leading to a violent sell-off in the crypto market—Bitcoin plummeted from nearly $69,000 to below $66,000, while Ethereum dropped from above $2,000 to below $1,900.
(Background: U.S. non-farm data arrives tonight! Analysis: Bitcoin severely oversold, labor market weakness may trigger crypto rebound)
(Additional context: Will Bitcoin surge to $170,000 within three months? Analysts: A new bull run could emerge by 2026)
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The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the delayed January non-farm payroll report on the evening of February 11 Taiwan time, with data far exceeding market expectations, delivering a shock to the crypto market. The Federal Reserve (Fed) had just announced in January that it would pause its rate-cut cycle, keeping rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%. Now, the strong employment figures further diminish market expectations for rate cuts in 2026.
Before the non-farm data was released, Bitcoin (BTC) was rallying, approaching the $69,000 level, with bullish momentum. However, at 11 p.m., the data came out, and the market turned sharply—BTC rapidly plunged below $66,000, losing over $3,000 within hours.
By 5 a.m., Bitcoin experienced a technical rebound, climbing back to $68,317, but then retreated again, closing at $67,495. Over 24 hours, the price fluctuation exceeded 4%.
Ethereum (ETH) experienced even more dramatic moves. Before the data, ETH had successfully broken above the $2,000 psychological level, leading investors to believe the breakout was confirmed. But after the non-farm report, ETH faced a sharp plunge, briefly falling below $1,900 with a maximum drop of over 5%. By the time of writing, ETH was at $1,957, still unable to reclaim the $2,000 mark.
According to Coinglass data, in the past 24 hours, 147,000 traders were liquidated, mainly long positions, with total liquidation exceeding $470 million. While the total amount isn’t huge, the number of traders affected is very high.
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, January non-farm employment increased by 130,000 jobs, far surpassing the Dow consensus estimate of 55,000, nearly 2.4 times the forecast. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate decreased from 4.4% to 4.3%, also better than market expectations.
Breaking down by industry, healthcare led with 82,000 new jobs; social services added 42,000; construction increased by 33,000. However, employment in federal government and financial sectors declined.
Notably, the BLS also simultaneously revised down the 2025 employment outlook significantly: seasonally adjusted, the total non-farm job growth for 2025 was cut from 584,000 to only 181,000, with monthly gains dropping from 48,000 to 15,000—indicating that last year’s employment market was actually much weaker than previously reported.
The core logic behind the market’s reaction is the impact of non-farm payrolls on Federal Reserve monetary policy:
Strong employment → Less pressure for Fed to cut rates → Rates stay high → Market liquidity remains limited → Risk assets under pressure
After three consecutive rate cuts in late 2025, the Fed paused in January this year, maintaining rates at 3.5%-3.75%. Market expectations previously anticipated three more rate cuts in 2026, but the unexpectedly strong non-farm data suggests the labor market hasn’t cooled as expected, possibly delaying the next rate cut.
For cryptocurrencies, the diminished rate cut expectations directly reduce the “liquidity-driven” upside potential. Risk assets like Bitcoin tend to perform well in low-interest, loose monetary environments, but if the Fed remains cautious longer, short-term price pressures may persist.
However, some market interpretations see the “other side.” The large downward revision of 2025 employment (a reduction of over 400,000 jobs) hints that the actual U.S. labor market might be much weaker than the surface data suggests. This implies that even with strong January figures, the Fed could resume rate cuts later in the year due to economic slowdown.
In short, while the January data is bearish for crypto in the short term, the “true condition” of the employment market remains questionable, and the path to rate cuts may not be entirely closed. Investors should closely watch the upcoming February non-farm payroll report on March 6 and subsequent Fed rate decisions to determine whether this price correction is a one-time shock or the start of a trend reversal.
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