XRP Today's News: Non-farm payrolls crush Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, ETF inflows of $1.23 billion support the market

Due to progress in congressional legislation and the U.S. employment report exceeding expectations, the strong demand for XRP spot ETFs was overshadowed, causing XRP to fall below $1.40. The market continues to react to the deadlock between TradFi and DeFi regarding stablecoin yields, with U.S. banks resisting legislation that would allow stablecoin rewards, hindering the progress of the Market Structure Bill. Non-farm payrolls in January increased from 48,000 to 130,000, and the unemployment rate decreased from 4.4% to 4.3%.

Non-Farm Payrolls of 130,000 Crushs Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations

On February 11, the U.S. employment report showed a resilient labor market, dampening demand for risk assets like Bitcoin and XRP. Non-farm employment in January rose from 48,000 in December to 130,000. Meanwhile, despite the labor force participation rate increasing from 62.4% to 62.5%, the unemployment rate fell from 4.4% to 4.3%. Notably, average hourly earnings in January grew by 3.7% year-over-year, consistent with December’s trend.

The addition of 130,000 jobs far exceeded market expectations of 70,000, making it an “above expectations” figure. Under normal circumstances, strong employment data would be positive for stocks and the economy, but in the current environment, it is negative for risk assets. The reason is that strong employment reduces the urgency for the Federal Reserve to cut rates. Markets had expected economic slowdown to force the Fed to cut in March or June, but the 130,000 new jobs indicate the labor market remains healthy, giving the Fed no reason to rush rate cuts.

A tightening labor market could boost wages and consumer confidence. Rising wages may stimulate consumer spending and trigger demand-driven inflation. Rising inflation would force the Fed to delay rate cuts, increasing borrowing costs. This “good employment → inflation concerns → delayed rate cuts → risk asset pressure” chain is the core narrative in the current market.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate cut in March dropped from 20.1% on February 10 to 5.4% on February 11. Additionally, the chance of a June rate cut fell from 75.2% to 57.6%. This sharp decline in expectations is the direct reason XRP and the entire crypto market broke below key support levels.

Triple Impact of Non-Farm Payroll Data on XRP

Rate cut expectations collapse: March probability from 20% to 5%, June from 75% to 58%

High interest rates persist: XRP with no interest becomes less attractive

Risk appetite declines: Strong employment reduces recession fears but also diminishes stimulus expectations

It’s worth noting that XRP initially rose due to market relief over U.S. recession fears but later fell as expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut rates in early 2026 weakened, with the price dropping to an intraday low of $1.3418. This “rise then fall” pattern reflects the market’s complex and fragile sentiment.

Institutional Confidence with $1.23 Billion Inflows into ETFs

Despite the more hawkish Fed rate path and delays in crypto legislation weighing on market sentiment, demand for XRP spot ETFs buffered the downside. On Tuesday, February 10, U.S. XRP spot ETFs experienced inflows for the fifth consecutive trading day. Since launch, XRP ETF issuers have accumulated a net inflow of $1.23 billion, indicating strong institutional demand.

The $1.23 billion inflow over just a few months since the ETF’s launch is remarkable. By comparison, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF market saw net outflows of $4.3 billion during the same period. This divergence—XRP inflows versus Bitcoin outflows—is a key reason XRP has been relatively resilient. Without the ETF’s $1.23 billion support, XRP might have fallen even further in this environment. Historically, Bitcoin has dropped 46% from its October all-time high of $125,761, due to continuous outflows from the Bitcoin spot ETF market since October 10.

Ripple’s progress in the consumer sector is also boosting XRP’s utility, further strengthening institutional demand for XRP spot ETFs. On February 11, Reece Merrick, Senior Executive/Managing Director of Ripple for the Middle East and Africa, shared another milestone: “We are pleased to announce that Ripple will partner with Aviva Investors to bring traditional fund structures onto the XRP Ledger. This marks our first collaboration with a European asset manager to tokenize real-world assets at scale.” Such developments are likely to continue driving demand for XRP spot ETFs.

Technical Breakdown Below Key Moving Averages to $1.00

(Source: Trading View)

On February 11, XRP declined 2.14%, following a 2.58% drop the previous day, closing at $1.3698. Wednesday’s decline broke XRP below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a strong bearish momentum. Key technical levels to watch include: support at $1.00 and then $0.7773; resistance at the 50-day moving average of $1.7791; resistance at the 200-day moving average of $2.1713; and resistance levels at $1.50, $2.0, $2.5, and $3.0.

XRP plunged 16% in February, reaffirming a short-term (1-4 weeks) bearish outlook with a target of $1.00. However, strong demand for spot ETFs, hopes that the Senate will pass the Market Structure Bill, and increased XRP utility all bolster medium- and long-term bullish expectations: $2.5 in 4-8 weeks and $3.0 in 8-12 weeks.

Looking ahead 12 weeks, these factors could push XRP’s price toward its all-time high of $3.66. Breaking above $3.66 would confirm a target of $5 within the next 6 to 12 months.