MSTR crashes 72% from its all-time high! Investment banks call for "buy" but slash target prices by 61%

As Bitcoin’s decline intensifies, the world’s largest publicly traded Bitcoin holder—Strategy (NYSE: MSTR)—has also fallen victim to a sell-off, with its stock price plunging again on Wednesday, reaching a low of $121.19 during trading, prompting analysts to adopt a more cautious stance and revise their price targets downward.
In a research report released on Wednesday, Joseph Vafi, an analyst at Canaccord Genuity—long considered a strong supporter of Strategy—cut the company’s target price from $474 to $185, a reduction of 61%. However, notably, Vafi still maintained a “Buy” rating on Strategy.
Earlier today, Bitcoin briefly dipped near $70,000, hitting its lowest point since October 2024; Strategy’s stock price tumbled about 9% on Wednesday to $121.19, representing a 15% decline year-to-date and a 72% drop from its all-time high in November 2024.
Vafi stated that Bitcoin is still viewed as a long-term store of value in narrative, but its recent price movements increasingly resemble high-risk assets like tech stocks. Amid geopolitical risks and turbulent macroeconomic conditions, gold prices have surged, yet Bitcoin has failed to benefit in tandem, unable to keep pace with safe-haven assets.
He pointed out that the crypto market flash crash in October last year triggered widespread forced liquidations, and the selling pressure from that event still lingers, indicating Bitcoin remains highly dependent on market liquidity rather than safe-haven demand.
Notably, Vafi only raised Strategy’s target price to $474 in November last year, but now has significantly revised it downward. Despite this, he still assigns a new target of $185, implying over 40% upside potential from the previous close of $129.09.
Vafi’s valuation assumptions are based on two premises: first, that Bitcoin’s price rebounds approximately 20% from its lows; second, that Strategy’s net asset value multiple (mNAV) recovers to about 1.25 times.
The report notes that Strategy’s overall financial structure is designed to withstand high volatility. The company currently holds over $44 billion in Bitcoin assets, with convertible bonds totaling about $8 billion, including a $1 billion puttable bond due in 2027, which remains in-the-money.
Regarding dividend payments on preferred stock, Vafi believes that even if Strategy’s mNAV premium has significantly narrowed, the company can manage this through small equity issuances, which in the short term do not pose a structural risk.