QCP: Bitcoin rebounds above $88,000, options data shows the market will remain volatile rather than crash

BlockBeats News, January 28 — QCP released its daily market analysis stating, "Bitcoin has risen back above the key level of @USD8.8@K. Recently breaking below this level often triggers a rapid decline driven by liquidations; if it can quickly recover, the price will be pulled back into a range-bound zone. Next, the market will face a series of intense U.S. macro events: the FOMC interest rate decision on January 28; the government funding deadline on January 30, which keeps the risk of a shutdown ongoing; and the Senate rescheduling discussions on crypto market structure legislation. The options market clearly reflects this asymmetry. Overall volatility remains controlled, with the term structure maintaining a positive spread, so the baseline scenario remains sideways movement rather than a crash.

In terms of fiscal risk, the key issue is whether Washington can smoothly resolve the January 30 funding problem. If a temporary solution is passed in time, short-term risk premiums are expected to compress, making crypto assets more like pure Beta trades; if there is a brief misstep, the market may initially fluctuate but recover after an agreement is reached; if the deadlock persists, liquidity could tighten, forcing the market to undergo broader de-risking.

The closer key event is the Federal Reserve. The baseline expectation remains unchanged interest rates, with the market focusing on when to restart rate cuts. Inflation is still above 2%, and employment is beginning to weaken, prompting the committee to remain cautious and data-dependent. Amid concerns over the Fed’s independence, it is expected to emphasize independence and reiterate ‘waiting for more data’; if a hawkish stance of inaction prevails, it could trigger a rebound in the dollar and cause short-term volatility in risk assets."