VanEck Predicts the Gold Price If the Dollar Loses Reserve Status

VanEckpublished a study that looks at one extreme but important question: what happens to gold if the U.S. dollar loses its role as the world’s reserve currency?

The approach is not based on chart patterns or price targets. It’s balance-sheet math. VanEck’s team compared central bank money liabilities with official gold reserves to estimate where gold would need to be priced if it became the primary anchor again.

The numbers are eye-catching. Using narrow money (M0) adjusted for FX turnover, the implied gold price comes out near $39,000 per ounce. Using broader money measures (M2), the figure climbs far higher. VanEck is clear on one point: this is not a forecast. It’s a stress-test of the global monetary system.

• Why VanEck Thinks This Matters
• Gold at $4,600 Already Feels Extreme
• A Long-Term, Not Short-Term, Scenario

Why VanEck Thinks This Matters

The argument rests on confidence. Reserve currencies work as long as the world believes in them. VanEck notes that confidence has been quietly eroding over time, especially since sanctions froze Russia’s foreign exchange reserves. That event changed how many countries view dollar dependence.

Since then, central banks have been buying gold at a faster pace. The motivation is not speculation. It’s protection. Gold has no counterparty risk, and it cannot be frozen by another government.

VanEck’s framework shows that many countries are far more leveraged than they appear. Some, like Kazakhstan and Russia, already hold enough gold to back their narrow money supply at prices close to today’s levels. Others, including Japan and the UK, would need gold prices many times higher to achieve the same coverage.

Source: X/@Mark4XX

Gold at $4,600 Already Feels Extreme

That said, context matters. Gold is already trading around $4,600. This alone is unusual. Gold has rarely moved this fast in such a short period without a major crisis unfolding at the same time.

From a market perspective, this kind of move often brings cooling phases, pullbacks, or long periods of consolidation. Expecting gold to jump from $4,600 to $39,000 in a short time frame would be unrealistic.

Historically, gold re-prices slowly. Big moves tend to play out over years, not months.

Read also: Silver Price Crash Ahead? Robert Kiyosaki Says Sellers Will Trigger the Drop

A Long-Term, Not Short-Term, Scenario

VanEck’s analysis makes more sense as a long-term thought experiment. If the global system gradually shifts away from the dollar over the next decade, gold could be revalued much higher than most people expect today.

A near-10x move from current levels would not come from speculation alone. It would require structural change, sustained central bank buying, and a clear shift in how reserves are held globally.

Gold at $39,000 is a reminder of how stretched the current system becomes if trust in the dollar fades.

At current prices, gold already reflects rising uncertainty. Much higher prices would reflect something deeper: a slow but meaningful change in how the world measures value and trust.

For now, VanEck’s work is best read as a warning, not a target.