Wintermute: Whether the market can recover in 2026 depends on three major factors, and the market urgently needs a surge of enthusiasm.

BlockBeats News, January 14 — In its review of the digital asset over-the-counter trading market, market maker Wintermute analyzes: The traditional four-year cycle of Bitcoin performance in 2025 has been weak, and the altcoin cycle has almost disappeared. This is not a temporary adjustment but a structural change. Therefore, for the crypto market to truly rebound strongly in 2026, it heavily depends on the occurrence of at least one of the following three key outcomes:

ETFs and crypto treasury (DAT) companies will expand their investment scope beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum. Currently, the liquidity of the US spot BTC/ETH ETFs is highly concentrated in a few large-cap tokens, leading to a narrowing market breadth and severe performance divergence. Only when more tokens are included by institutions through ETFs or corporate treasuries can broader market participation and liquidity be restored.

Major assets like BTC, ETH, BNB, SOL, etc., will once again show strong performance and generate widespread wealth effects. The traditional cycle of “BTC rising followed by funds flowing into altcoins” in 2025 has basically broken down. The average altcoin rally lasts only about 20 days (compared to about 60 days the previous year), with most tokens continuing to decline due to unlock selling pressure. Only when leading assets surge again can funds spill over downward, activating the altcoin market.

Retail investor attention is returning to the crypto market. Currently, retail investors are still actively participating, but their funds are mainly invested in high-growth themes such as S&P 500 dollar-cost averaging, AI, robotics, and quantum computing. The painful memories of 2022-2023 (crashes, bankruptcies, forced liquidations), combined with crypto’s underperformance compared to traditional stock markets in 2025, have significantly reduced the attractiveness of “get-rich-quick” crypto schemes. Only with a large-scale return of retail investors can the market regain its frenzy.