XRP loses momentum before the decline in on-chain activity and Futures

Ripple (XRP) currently fluctuates within a narrow range around the $2.00 support level as of Wednesday. Although spot ETF funds continue to attract steady capital, with a total accumulated value of up to $1.23 billion, XRP’s recovery signals are still not very convincing.

In reality, institutional money is not enough to trigger a sustainable upward momentum when demand from retail investors remains weak. Additionally, on-chain activity has stagnated, and risks from the unstable macroeconomic environment are exerting pressure, causing XRP’s price movement to remain subdued.

XRP ETF statistical data | Source: SoSoValue## Low on-chain activity puts pressure on XRP price prospects

Based on data from Glassnode, the number of active addresses on the XRP Ledger (XRPL) has dropped sharply by 17.5%, down to approximately 42,600 addresses as of Monday, compared to 51,500 addresses recorded on 1/5. Notably, network activity has been declining continuously since July, when it exceeded 66,000 addresses, clearly reflecting a gradual weakening in user engagement.

Active XRP address data | Source: Glassnode If this trend is not improved soon, demand from retail investors is likely to remain low, causing XRP to lack the necessary support to sustain or extend its price recovery.

On the other hand, the XRP derivatives market also shows no positive signs. Since January 6 — when the open interest (OI) of futures contracts peaked at $4.55 billion — this indicator has been shrinking. According to CoinGlass, the total value of open futures contracts currently stands at around $3.93 billion as of Wednesday.

Open futures contract volume for XRP | Source: CoinGlass The prolonged decline in both spot and derivatives markets indicates a cautious sentiment, as investors gradually lose confidence in XRP’s ability to maintain an upward trend and actively tighten risk management strategies to limit losses.

Technical perspective: XRP consolidates amid mixed signals

At the time of recording, XRP is trading sideways within a narrow range, with the critical support zone at $2.00 temporarily holding, while the recovery momentum is continuously restrained by the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) around $2.07. The relative strength index (RSI) on the daily timeframe hovers around 52, reflecting a fairly neutral market momentum. However, the formation of a slight bearish divergence indicates that correction pressure still exists, giving short-term advantage to the bears.

On the same timeframe, the MACD indicator is approaching a sell signal, as the MACD line (blue) risks crossing below the signal line (red). Meanwhile, red histogram bars are expanding below the centerline, suggesting increasing cautious sentiment, which could lead investors to reduce risk appetite and add selling pressure.

Daily XRP/USDT chart | Source: TradingView In a negative scenario, if the price closes below the 50-day EMA, XRP’s short-term downtrend will be reinforced, increasing the risk of breaking the psychological support at $2.00. In that case, the next demand zone at $1.81 — the area tested on 1/1 — will serve as an important support point for the price.

Conversely, if the bulls regain control and push the price above the 50-day EMA, XRP could trigger a rally of about 9%. The nearest targets in this scenario are the 100-day EMA at $2.21 and the 200-day EMA around $2.33.

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