Solana price heads towards an 84% increase as holders gain control

Solana (SOL) price has gained nearly 10% over the past week, followed by a slight correction, but the weekly price structure remains stable. What’s notable about this movement is not the growth rate itself but the forces behind the market’s movement.

The latest data shows a clear shift in the group of investors holding SOL, a factor that often explains price behavior better than technical charts alone. This shift reflects a more balanced market, with decreasing short-term trading activity and an increasing number of investors holding assets for the long term.

Holder Data: The “Strong Hands” Gradually Control SOL Price

One of the most prominent signals comes from the SOL HODL wave data, which classifies wallets based on holding duration.

The short-term holder group—wallets holding SOL from one day to one week—is decreasing sharply. At the end of December, this group accounted for about 6% of the total supply, but now it has fallen below 4%.

The retreat of short-term holders often stabilizes the price, as they tend to sell quickly during minor market fluctuations.

Short-term holders | Source: Glassnode Conversely, the number of wallets holding SOL for six to twelve months has increased significantly, from 13.9% of the supply on 12/24 to nearly 15% on 1/7.

Medium- and long-term holders | Source: Glassnode These investors usually have a long-term outlook and are less affected by small fluctuations, helping to maintain stability during correction phases. The change in confidence among this group indicates that SOL’s current price is supported by strategic and confident investors rather than just short-term momentum.

Large Traders and Network Data Reinforce This Trend

The positions of highly leveraged traders also send important signals. The top 100 addresses in the futures market still hold short positions, meaning they are hedging against downside risk.

However, these traders are gradually adding long positions, a move often seen when they expect prices to rise but prefer to approach the market cautiously.

On the technical chart, SOL’s price has broken above the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA)—a more responsive indicator that emphasizes recent prices, helping to identify short-term trends more clearly than simple moving averages.

SOL previously lost this level in October and failed to hold it for several months. Maintaining above this level now indicates that short-term strength is gradually improving.

SOL Price Chart | Source: TradingView The next key level of interest for traders is around $149, coinciding with the 100-day EMA and previous resistance zones.

Many analysts see this as a decisive point for SOL’s price. If the price remains stable above $149, SOL could have the opportunity to move toward the $250–$253 range, representing an 84% increase from current levels.

Network activity on SOL also supports this outlook. The stablecoin supply on Solana has increased by over $900 million, indicating new capital flowing into the ecosystem. Additionally, trading volume on Pump.fun exceeded $2 billion in a single day, reflecting active user engagement even as short-term speculation activity declines.

Currently, SOL’s price is driven by a steadfast group of holders, cautious positions from large traders, and increasing on-chain activity. The price movement around the $149 level will be a key factor in determining whether the growth trend can be sustained.

Mr. Teacher