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Two-Thirds of Economists See High Probability of Fed Rate Hike in 2026, Reversing June Outlook

Commodities Forex

2026-07-21 15:01:49

According to a Reuters survey conducted from July 17–21, about 66% of economists believe the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in 2026 is high, marking a sharp reversal from June when most expected rate hikes to be unlikely. The shift comes as oil prices have surged nearly 25% amid escalating Middle East tensions, raising concerns that last month's disinflation may prove temporary. Inflation currently remains roughly double the Fed's 2% target. However, when asked about baseline expectations, over three-quarters of surveyed economists still predict the Fed will hold rates steady through the end of 2026, with the central bank expected to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% at its July 28–29 meeting.

Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third-party sources and is for reference only. It does not represent the views or opinions of Gate and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Virtual asset trading involves high risk. Please do not rely solely on the information on this page when making decisions. For details, see the Disclaimer.

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