Shanghai Nickel Futures Fall Below March Low on Macro Pressure and Inventory Buildup

According to multiple Chinese brokerages, Shanghai nickel futures fell sharply overnight and today, declining nearly 2% to refresh the lowest level since March, amid macro headwinds and inventory pressures. The U.S. dollar surged to its highest level since November last year as market participants repriced expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, weighing on dollar-denominated commodities including nickel.

Supply-side pressures are easing gradually. Indonesia's mid-year nickel ore quota (RKAB) approval prospects have softened market expectations for quota tightening, while Philippine ore supply remains stable and freight costs are expected to decline. However, refinery nickel inventories and exchange stockpiles continue accumulating, with domestic physical premiums suggesting persistent oversupply. According to Dongwu Futures, near-term catalysts for gains are limited, with downside support from sulfur shortage (due to Strait of Hormuz concerns) and elevated nickel ore prices.