The White House Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs (OIRA) confirmed on May 27 that it has received a draft proposed rule filed by the CFTC under Section 5c(c) of the Commodity Exchange Act concerning event contracts, and that a standard interagency review is currently underway. Donald Trump Jr. invested in Polymarket through venture firm 1789 Capital and serves as a strategic advisor to Kalshi.
Details of the confirmation process for OIRA review and the CFTC’s regulatory background
The CFTC confirmed that this submission to OIRA falls under a “standard interagency process,” with the legal basis being Section 5c(c) of the Commodity Exchange Act. OIRA is a federal regulatory review body under the White House Office of Management and Budget.
CFTC Chairman Selig took a hardline stance before the review was initiated, arguing that prediction markets fall under the CFTC’s “exclusive jurisdiction,” and filed lawsuits against Wisconsin, Illinois, Arizona, Connecticut, and New York, alleging that these states are trying to restrict the operations of platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket. In March 2026, the CFTC issued guidance requiring exchanges to ensure that prediction market contracts are “not readily subject to manipulation.” The White House has not yet issued a public response regarding the OIRA review.
Trump’s confirmed public statements and the states’ rebuttals
In a Tuesday post, Trump confirmed his remarks and, in the same post, named and criticized former New Jersey governor Chris Christie, New York Attorney General Letitia James, Minnesota governor Tim Walz, and Illinois governor JB Pritzker.
Illinois Governor Pritzker responded on X, confirming that Illinois has taken action to prevent insider trading in online prediction markets, and accusing Trump of trying to stop state regulation so that “his family and the government can continue to profit.” The states’ stated legal position is that these platforms violate local gambling and betting laws, especially those related to sports betting. TD Cowen’s Washington research group managing director Jaret Seiberg confirmed on Wednesday that Trump’s involvement in this dispute is “unlikely to change” the broader legal debate, because the issue is currently being handled by federal courts rather than by regulators or the administration.
Frequently asked questions
How long does OIRA review of the CFTC draft rules take, and what procedures follow after the review?
The CFTC confirmed that this submission to OIRA is part of a standard interagency process and is currently ongoing. OIRA’s federal regulatory review process typically does not have a fixed deadline. The CFTC confirmed that more information will be released once the review is completed, but it did not disclose a specific timeline. After the OIRA review ends, the CFTC can move on to follow-up procedures such as issuing formal rule announcements and soliciting public comments.
What are the specifics of the situation involving Trump family investments in prediction markets?
According to the confirmation disclosures in the reports, Donald Trump Jr. invested in the prediction market platform Polymarket through venture firm 1789 Capital, and also serves as a strategic advisor to Kalshi. Illinois Governor Pritzker directly referenced this connection in a public statement, accusing Trump’s involvement in the regulatory dispute of presenting a conflict of interest.
Why do TD Cowen analysts think Trump’s involvement will not change the legal debate?
TD Cowen analyst Jaret Seiberg confirmed on Wednesday that this assessment is based on the following: the jurisdiction dispute over prediction market regulation between the CFTC and multiple states is currently being heard in federal court, and the authority to decide legal issues lies with the judiciary, not with public statements from the executive branch or regulatory agencies.
