The United States is about to release the January PCE price index, with core PCE expected to increase 3.1% year-over-year, marking the largest increase since 2024 and significantly exceeding the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target. Due to differences in item weighting between CPI and PCE, their trends have diverged, and PCE's "moderate" convention is also being challenged, which may impact the Federal Reserve's monetary policy in the future.