#市场周期与价格预测 Just now I saw that the big players' end-of-year BTC price predictions didn't come true, and I'm a bit shocked😅 Arthur Hayes said it could reach $200,000, Tom Lee called for $250,000, Saylor expected $150,000... and the result? None of them were achieved. This made me suddenly realize a very real problem: why are even these professionals' predictions so off?

I used to be really easily scared by these predictions, always thinking that what the big influencers said was the truth, and I ended up expecting all year. Now I understand that market cycles are far more complex than I imagined, with too many influencing factors, and no one can be sure. Hayes himself admits that his predictions are "quite bad," which actually reassures me a bit—at least they are honest😂

This is actually a good lesson for a beginner like me: don't treat predictions as facts, and don't go all-in just because experts expect it. I should focus more on learning the fundamentals, understanding what the market is actually doing, rather than being hostage to various target prices.

Can someone help me understand why these predictions are so off? Is it because my understanding of market cycles is still too shallow?