June 13 Saturday BTC Early Morning Thoughts Bitcoin has recently continued to weaken, due to the Fed's rate cut expectations falling short, inflation data strengthening, pushing up U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index, leading to a sell-off of interest-free crypto assets. Bitcoin spot ETFs have experienced long-term consecutive net outflows, with institutional funds leaving the market becoming the main bearish factor. Coupled with market funds diverted by SpaceX's IPO and the AI sector, capital shifts to safe havens like the dollar and gold. Cryptocurrency market sentiment has fallen into extreme fear, with large holders reducing holdings and miners selling off, further increasing downward pressure. On the technical side, the daily double top has broken, moving averages are all downwardly pressured, the hourly rebound lacks momentum, bullish support is weak, and bearish forces are still releasing. The short-term rebound is only a oversold correction, and the overall downtrend has not reversed. The subsequent trend will still depend on the Fed's actions and changes in capital flows. Operation suggestion: Watch for a rebound at 640-645, $BTC target 625.

SOL-related events: ecosystem activities, DeFi/Gaming. Recommended: Entry range: 65 - 69 USDT. 10 entry points: spaced ~0.5-1 USDT apart. Why recommended: SOL has good resilience, with strong potential to rebound along with BTC. $SOL

6.13 Saturday ETH Early Morning Thoughts As of today, Ethereum (ETH) price fluctuates between $1,630 and $1,688, showing an overall rebound but with insufficient momentum. Yesterday, ETH briefly recovered from a low of $1,535, breaking through the $1,600 level and reaching a high of around $1,640. From a capital perspective, market sentiment is cautious. The Ethereum spot ETF has experienced net outflows for the third consecutive day, with approximately $16 million flowing out on Thursday, and about $41 million and $36 million flowing out on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. Meanwhile, the total open interest in futures contracts decreased from $24.4 billion on Monday to the current $22.98 billion, a significant decline from $30.95 billion on June 1, indicating a cooling of risk appetite in the derivatives market. Regarding liquidation data, the total liquidation across the network in the past 24 hours was $338 million, with ETH long positions liquidated at about $36.27 million and short positions at about $35.3 million, showing that the battle between bulls and bears remains intense. On the technical side, the current price is within a rebound channel but faces resistance at the $1,680–$1,700 zone. The short-term support is at the $1,600 level; if broken, it may test the previous low of $1,550. Combining the capital and technical aspects, Ethereum is currently in an oversold rebound phase rather than a trend reversal. The continuous ETF outflows and declining open interest suggest that institutional funds have not yet returned. The rebound is mainly driven by short covering and short-term trading, lacking a foundation for sustained upward movement. It is expected to consolidate in the short term, with a main trading range of $1,580–$1,700. Short-term traders: Consider shorting at the high end of $1,600–$1,620 and buying the dip, with strict stop-loss. The strong resistance zone is at $1,680–$1,700; a light short position can be attempted there. If the price falls below $1,580, consider exiting $BTC and observing.