Emilyvuong

📍 US December CPI: The best CPI reading since Trump took office
📌 Year-over-year (YoY)
- Headline CPI: +2.7% YoY - unchanged from the previous month, in line with forecasts.
- Core #CPI: +2.6% YoY - unchanged from the previous month, below the forecast +2.7%.
📌 Month-over-month (MoM)
- Headline CPI: +0.3% MoM - unchanged from the previous month and in line with forecasts.
- Core CPI: +0.2% MoM - unchanged from the previous month, below the forecast +0.3%.
📌 Supercore CPI +0.14% MoM, +2.84% YoY (lowest since 09/2021).
📍 Details of changes by basket
- Food increased sharply by +0.7% MoM
- C

📍USD experienced the worst year in nearly a decade
If we only look at policies, 2025 should have been a favorable year for the US dollar. Tariffs were expected to bring capital flows back to the US, and the story of U.S. exceptionalism became the biggest narrative. However, DXY ended 2025 down -9%. In the first half of 2025: USD fell more than -12%, with a 6-month drop the strongest since the floating exchange rate system was introduced in the 1970s(.
-> On the G10 chart, the USD is the red line below the bottom; all other major currencies outperformed strongly — global capital is broadly lea

📍The US economy in 2026 will fall into a "lite stagflation" — a milder version of the stagflation era, with sluggish growth and sticky inflation.
📌US economic growth is likely to hover around 1.5-2%. The cycle where fiscal stimulus and asset price increases are the main drivers of the market, while the rest of the economy follows at a slow pace.
📌Inflation remains subdued due to OER reflecting housing market lags. Non-housing services will decline very slowly as they follow wage trends; tariffs have not yet fully reflected the impact, leaving room for price increases throughout 2026. The Fe

🟠 The US trade deficit in October fell to -$29.4B, the lowest since 2009
The figure is surprising because it is much better than the forecasted -$58.1B. September was also revised from -$52.8B to -$48.1B, paving the way for an upward adjustment of Q3 GDP.
- Exports increased +2.6% MoM to $302B
- Imports decreased -3.2% MoM to $342.1B.
-> Compared to 2024, the deficit continues to improve. The US is balancing its trade deficit by increasing exports of gold, jewelry, and pharmaceuticals — surprising as these asset groups saw strong gains in 2025.
The deficit with China is only -$175.4B, the lo

🚨 The amount of $ETH waiting to unstake is now 0 - the milestone before 7/2025. The market has balanced its psychology after the October crash.

🟠 The United States accelerates the purchase of Greenland
Greenland openly states it can negotiate separately with the US. Denmark confirms it will go to Washington with Greenland next week. Signs indicate that this 57,000-population island has implicitly agreed to the deal from Trump.
The deal Trump wants: the US will pay $600M/year to Denmark for 100 years to acquire Greenland.
$60,000,000,000 / 2,166,000,000,000 m² ≈ $0.028/m²
-> Cheap as dirt. The US may have to offer a higher price.
Greenland possesses 25 out of 34 strategic resources according to EU standards, including rare earth elem

🟢 US - Russia confrontation at sea: Russia is at a disadvantage as Bella-1 falls into US hands
🟠 Bella-1 with its zig-zag journey from Iran to Venezuela and then looping up the North Atlantic has triggered a chase between the US and Russian navies:
📌 12/19: Bella-1 is detected leaving Iran to go to Venezuela to take oil.
📌 12/21: The US attempts to intercept. The ship immediately turns off signals and flees northeast.
📌 01/01: Bella-1 reappears on radar in the Atlantic Ocean.
📌 01/06: Russia deploys submarines and escort warships.
📌 01/07: The ship changes name, flies the Russian flag,

🟠Rumors that Venezuela holds 600,000 $BTC - nearly 3% of the supply - are causing market panic.
Since 2018, Venezuela has sold over 70 tons of gold, exchanging it at BTC prices of $5k–10k. By 2025, 80% of crude oil revenue will be paid in USDT and gradually transitioned to $BTC. All to evade US sanctions. Most BTC and USDT are stored in cold wallets, dispersed, with no on-chain trace.
Assets worth nearly $60B are at risk of change of ownership after Maduro's arrest on 1/3/2026. The key question is where the private key is stored.
After Maduro's arrest and Venezuela potentially being governe

🟠 Trump exerts pressure to force US companies back to Venezuela
Most of the oil in the Orinoco belt is extra-heavy sour crude. High viscosity, high sulfur content, requiring diluent blending or upgrading before sale. The selling price is even 10-20% lower than the global oil price, sometimes about ~$20/bbl below Brent.
Poor infrastructure + higher operating costs than industry standards -> Venezuela, despite having one of the world's largest reserves, has seen production drop from >3.5mbd at the end of the 20th century to around ~1.1mbd currently.
It is estimated that increasing production by

🟠 BlackRock Bitcoin ETF records the largest inflow in nearly 3 months
🟢According to updated data, #ETF Bitcoin của BlackRock (iShares Bitcoin Trust – #IBIT) recorded an inflow of $287.4M on 02/01/2026, the highest in nearly 3 months. As a result, the total inflow of the Bitcoin spot #ETF group in the US reached $471.3M for the session, the highest since mid-November 2025.
🟢The capital mainly focused on:
- $IBIT (BlackRock): +$287.4M
- $FBTC (Fidelity): +$88.1M
- $BITB (Bitwise): +$41.5M
🟢The remaining ETFs recorded smaller inflows, while no funds experienced significant outflows during thi

Meme wave ( if there is ) will @MustStopMurad come ashore?

📍Just 5 hours before the US detained Maduro, Chinese officials arrived in Venezuela to negotiate oil-related matters.
📌President Xi immediately announced his New Year’s speech as a signal that "Taiwan will be reclaimed soon," with military exercises near Taiwan’s coast (on an unprecedented scale in history), perhaps indicating that China’s intention to attack Taiwan is no longer far off.
📌China currently imports >70% of its oil needs. In the scenario where Beijing attacks Taiwan, if the US imposes financial blockades and energy sanctions, China will face a serious oil shortage risk.
📌China

📌 In the New Year's Eve Speech - 2026 New Year Message by Chinese President Xi Jinping, he reiterated the longstanding view of the Chinese Communist Party that the reunification of China with Taiwan is an unstoppable historical trend and mentioned that “the people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait share the same bloodline.”
It seems that in 2026, gold has little reason to decline unless the Taiwan Strait heats up again soon.

The market has witnessed the largest long-term holder selling pressure on #Bitcoin since 2019 in over a month.
Currently, the selling pressure has eased and is gradually shifting to net buying.

The story of silver prices
Currently, gold prices are even beyond the reach of some Vietnamese ( and even the whole world).
But precious metals don't split like stocks to make them "seem cheaper" and more accessible to the masses. So the crowd follows FOMO based on "similar but cheaper" options.
Before 2023, the price difference between Vietnamese silver and the global market was usually only 8-12%, but after 2024, this figure has risen to ~20%.
The reason is that after 2024, gold prices are tightened more, while the safe-haven demand (officially) for silver continues to increase. Gold has off

📍The US fiscal policy has shaped the US economy in 2026: Will there be no recession?
🔸Inflation is not low enough for the Fed to release the brakes as strongly as in 2020. Goldman Sachs believes the US economy will perform well in the first half of 2026 thanks to accommodative financial conditions (from the Fed) + government pumping money through the budget.
-> The cost is a baseline deficit. The US Congressional Budget Office projects FY2026 deficit ~ $1.7T (~5.5% of GDP). More importantly, public debt: the US has paid ~$970B in 2025; in 2026, interest costs ~3.2% of GDP (have surpassed th

📍The mega-whales are quietly withdrawing.
📌 The number of Bitcoin addresses holding >10,000 $BTC has decreased from 92 addresses in early December to 88 currently.
📌This decline coincides with the price downturn, indicating that these addresses are also selling during the price drop rather than buying the dip.