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Sykodelicc
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Sykodelicc
This is a healthy rally.
Price pushing higher with...
- OI interest pushing but with negative funding(shorts apeing as we move higher)
- Spot volume driving the rally
This is what happens at the bottoming areas.
Everyone is so bearish, feels so bearish and has gotten used to down only that they short every pump expecting it to just drop again.
And what is perceived as very negative news almost always marks the bottom, because traders cant understand how prices could go higher when everything is apparently so bad.
I'm not saying we wont test lower again, we have our key levels set.
But the long
Price pushing higher with...
- OI interest pushing but with negative funding(shorts apeing as we move higher)
- Spot volume driving the rally
This is what happens at the bottoming areas.
Everyone is so bearish, feels so bearish and has gotten used to down only that they short every pump expecting it to just drop again.
And what is perceived as very negative news almost always marks the bottom, because traders cant understand how prices could go higher when everything is apparently so bad.
I'm not saying we wont test lower again, we have our key levels set.
But the long
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The confluence for a full scale market reversal keep adding up by the day.
I am giving you seriously in depth pieces of data here over and over.
This would be impossible without the data actually saying what it does.
Here we have the Software ETF $IGV.
This has been shared around as an index that is leading BTC, or something that BTC is following.
And you cannot deny how close they are moving together.
With that in mind, its worthwhile analysing $IGV here and comparing BTC.
From here, $IGV looks heavily oversold whilst maintaining its HTF structure, looking to undergo a running flat pattern re
I am giving you seriously in depth pieces of data here over and over.
This would be impossible without the data actually saying what it does.
Here we have the Software ETF $IGV.
This has been shared around as an index that is leading BTC, or something that BTC is following.
And you cannot deny how close they are moving together.
With that in mind, its worthwhile analysing $IGV here and comparing BTC.
From here, $IGV looks heavily oversold whilst maintaining its HTF structure, looking to undergo a running flat pattern re
BTC5,42%
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Another massive piece of confluence.
OIL just gapped up 11%... the largest gap ever, and broke its almost 4 year downtrend.
And when we compare Bitcoin, OIL, and PMI, we see a striking correlation.
They all move in absolute lock step.
It is not a surprise that OIL performs well in times of ISM/economic expansion.
And I just don't understand why everyone is fading it so hard.
All the pieces of the puzzle are forming into their places at the exact same time.
We can see here that in the previous cycles, when OIL breaks out its trend, Bitcoin has pushed for 500 - 600 days.
And OIL continues to pus
OIL just gapped up 11%... the largest gap ever, and broke its almost 4 year downtrend.
And when we compare Bitcoin, OIL, and PMI, we see a striking correlation.
They all move in absolute lock step.
It is not a surprise that OIL performs well in times of ISM/economic expansion.
And I just don't understand why everyone is fading it so hard.
All the pieces of the puzzle are forming into their places at the exact same time.
We can see here that in the previous cycles, when OIL breaks out its trend, Bitcoin has pushed for 500 - 600 days.
And OIL continues to pus
BTC5,42%
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We keep it simple.
Bitcoin is in a range, and ranging is the best for trading.
I'm only interested in looking for longs and shorts at key levels here.
HTF I think we move higher this month, but LTF we can go about it any number of ways.
Not in any trade right now.
Waiting for some movement this week.
Best you can do when Bitcoin is doing this is chill out.
Don't get bearish on drops and bullish on small pumps... wait for key levels and see how things form.
Otherwise you will just be pulling your hair out every day.
Bitcoin is in a range, and ranging is the best for trading.
I'm only interested in looking for longs and shorts at key levels here.
HTF I think we move higher this month, but LTF we can go about it any number of ways.
Not in any trade right now.
Waiting for some movement this week.
Best you can do when Bitcoin is doing this is chill out.
Don't get bearish on drops and bullish on small pumps... wait for key levels and see how things form.
Otherwise you will just be pulling your hair out every day.
BTC5,42%
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Is Bitcoin about to start the foundations of a parabolic run...
Just like Gold has done?
Well, right now, Bitcoin is looking strikingly similar to how Gold looked before it moved 300%.
We have:
- Two peaks
- A drop below the 50EMA
- A drop below the previous low
- A consolidation below that low
This is an expanded flat pattern, and Bitcoin is currently following to a tee. Gold consolidated within the deviation for 55 days, we are at 27 days.
It is one of the most deceptive patterns, because the deviation below the previous low is a massive bear trap.
It convinces everyone its weak, before trap
Just like Gold has done?
Well, right now, Bitcoin is looking strikingly similar to how Gold looked before it moved 300%.
We have:
- Two peaks
- A drop below the 50EMA
- A drop below the previous low
- A consolidation below that low
This is an expanded flat pattern, and Bitcoin is currently following to a tee. Gold consolidated within the deviation for 55 days, we are at 27 days.
It is one of the most deceptive patterns, because the deviation below the previous low is a massive bear trap.
It convinces everyone its weak, before trap
BTC5,42%
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We have a very healthy move happening here.
1. Price up
2. Spot buying pushing it
3. Open interest down
4. Funding deep negative
5. Coinbase premium green
I have also highlighted a move up that happened before, and you can see the differences.
This is a very healthy bottom and push higher.
Of course, we could still get some chop and take some liquidity below...
But lots of genuine demand after that Iran warn capitulation drop.
Everything is looking good for a March push higher.
1. Price up
2. Spot buying pushing it
3. Open interest down
4. Funding deep negative
5. Coinbase premium green
I have also highlighted a move up that happened before, and you can see the differences.
This is a very healthy bottom and push higher.
Of course, we could still get some chop and take some liquidity below...
But lots of genuine demand after that Iran warn capitulation drop.
Everything is looking good for a March push higher.
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I'm expecting a bullish March.
We have a lot lining up.
- Initial Iran war entrance behind us
- ISM print on the 3rd
- Clarity act circling
And we have held above the lows, regardless of the bad news.
I think we could see a little more chop over the next few days, clear up some liquidity, and then head higher.
We also have a CME gap and a flat top weekly candle at $82k/$84k, and this also lines up with the 1W 50EMA.
I am expecting Q1 to end bullish and have a 30% move to $84k/$86k.
From there we reevaluate for April, but my overall thesis has not changed.
New highs this year and a divergence
We have a lot lining up.
- Initial Iran war entrance behind us
- ISM print on the 3rd
- Clarity act circling
And we have held above the lows, regardless of the bad news.
I think we could see a little more chop over the next few days, clear up some liquidity, and then head higher.
We also have a CME gap and a flat top weekly candle at $82k/$84k, and this also lines up with the 1W 50EMA.
I am expecting Q1 to end bullish and have a 30% move to $84k/$86k.
From there we reevaluate for April, but my overall thesis has not changed.
New highs this year and a divergence
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Bad news often marks bottoms.
Removing uncertainty always helps markets.
This conflict with Iran has been public knowledge for a long time and most parts of it get priced in.
Don’t be too hasty in making decisions here.
Peak events like this almost always end up having the opposite result of what your emotions tell you.
Let it play out and observe the price action around key areas.
Patience and awareness are required at these moments 🙏🏻
Removing uncertainty always helps markets.
This conflict with Iran has been public knowledge for a long time and most parts of it get priced in.
Don’t be too hasty in making decisions here.
Peak events like this almost always end up having the opposite result of what your emotions tell you.
Let it play out and observe the price action around key areas.
Patience and awareness are required at these moments 🙏🏻
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Decent drop here from Bitcoin.
Nothing like a bit of War FUD to liquidate people!
Right now we are range trading since the $60k bottom.
When we trade in a range, liquidity builds up.
And although people don't like it happening, the healthiest lows form when the price takes out the lowest levels in a range a sweeps up the liquidity.
You very often see the price take out the lows, lead people into a trap, and deviate back into the range.
If we take out the lows on this range here below $60k it would probably be the most ideal scenario for an anxiety free reversal.
This is because if we do not ta
Nothing like a bit of War FUD to liquidate people!
Right now we are range trading since the $60k bottom.
When we trade in a range, liquidity builds up.
And although people don't like it happening, the healthiest lows form when the price takes out the lowest levels in a range a sweeps up the liquidity.
You very often see the price take out the lows, lead people into a trap, and deviate back into the range.
If we take out the lows on this range here below $60k it would probably be the most ideal scenario for an anxiety free reversal.
This is because if we do not ta
BTC5,42%
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It becomes very clearly when you look at it like this.
We have actually only had two cycles that can be put down as "4 year cycles".
They are: 2014 - 2018 & 2018 - 2022.
2009 - 2014 do not fall into it.
This cycle it is yet to be decided.
So out of 8 years of Bitcoins 16 year life, as of now, only 50% of it can be linked to the "4 year cycle" theory.
However, what is 100% consistent is that every time ISM enters expansion from contraction, it has begun a bull cycle for at least 385 days.
And yet, everyone holds onto the 4 year cycle and discounts the ISM/Business cycle?
Right now, we are clear
We have actually only had two cycles that can be put down as "4 year cycles".
They are: 2014 - 2018 & 2018 - 2022.
2009 - 2014 do not fall into it.
This cycle it is yet to be decided.
So out of 8 years of Bitcoins 16 year life, as of now, only 50% of it can be linked to the "4 year cycle" theory.
However, what is 100% consistent is that every time ISM enters expansion from contraction, it has begun a bull cycle for at least 385 days.
And yet, everyone holds onto the 4 year cycle and discounts the ISM/Business cycle?
Right now, we are clear
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March is lining up to be very volatile.
And I think it will be for the bulls.
Upcoming early March we have:
- Clarity Act deadline
- Iran conflict resolution one way or another
- Higher ISM print
- New lunar cycle
I am currently in a long trade from these levels $65,500 with very tight stops.
I think there is a high chance we will be leaving this range early March, and the below levels on the chart are key to watch for.
I could totally see an escalation in Iran conflict that dumps us to $61,000, or even sweep the lows, that then marks the bottom as ISM prints.
The last time Iran escalated it m
And I think it will be for the bulls.
Upcoming early March we have:
- Clarity Act deadline
- Iran conflict resolution one way or another
- Higher ISM print
- New lunar cycle
I am currently in a long trade from these levels $65,500 with very tight stops.
I think there is a high chance we will be leaving this range early March, and the below levels on the chart are key to watch for.
I could totally see an escalation in Iran conflict that dumps us to $61,000, or even sweep the lows, that then marks the bottom as ISM prints.
The last time Iran escalated it m
BTC5,42%
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There we go.
Thank you, New York Times.
The perfect top and bottom signal.
Send it.
Thank you, New York Times.
The perfect top and bottom signal.
Send it.
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Everybody needs to see this chart.
If you are struggling to understand my thesis...
This is another simple and effective chart that tells a very broad macro picture, all in one.
its probably one of the best overall macro charts you could see.
What we are looking at here is:
- COPPER
- BITCOIN
- GOLD
- ISM
Now, these 4 charts all tell a very distinct story, but when you put them together, they tell almost everything.
Copper is an asset that signals overall expansion as it is the most used metal in construction and development of all forms, and now, with the added tailwind of AI.
Copper has brok
If you are struggling to understand my thesis...
This is another simple and effective chart that tells a very broad macro picture, all in one.
its probably one of the best overall macro charts you could see.
What we are looking at here is:
- COPPER
- BITCOIN
- GOLD
- ISM
Now, these 4 charts all tell a very distinct story, but when you put them together, they tell almost everything.
Copper is an asset that signals overall expansion as it is the most used metal in construction and development of all forms, and now, with the added tailwind of AI.
Copper has brok
BTC5,42%
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This is all one massive psyop.
The market makers have laid the perfect trap out there and everyone is falling for it.
And the crazy thing, what is happening is what always happens...
Its just happening in a different way this cycle that most cant see.
What they have done is use the 4 year cycle to lay the perfect trap, just as the macro cycle is expanding.
They have followed the 4 year cycle for now, and it has convinced everyone it is truly over, right before it gets reversed.
This is the first time in Bitcoins life that the 4 year cycle and the business cycle are diverging, and right now, is
The market makers have laid the perfect trap out there and everyone is falling for it.
And the crazy thing, what is happening is what always happens...
Its just happening in a different way this cycle that most cant see.
What they have done is use the 4 year cycle to lay the perfect trap, just as the macro cycle is expanding.
They have followed the 4 year cycle for now, and it has convinced everyone it is truly over, right before it gets reversed.
This is the first time in Bitcoins life that the 4 year cycle and the business cycle are diverging, and right now, is
BTC5,42%
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That is exactly what you want to see from a bottom.
Perfect, really.
We had aggressive shorts load in as price dropped to $62.5k, and they got hunted which started our move.
As that happened OI got slammed as they all got liquidated - decent bear trap.
Then from there we’ve had a very strong rally from spot buying, with a relatively flat OI, meaning leverage is minimal…
But still negative funding so most are trying to short this move.
The kinda setup you want to see for a low to form, and for it to continue higher.
We will get more signals about what is next at the range highs.
Perfect, really.
We had aggressive shorts load in as price dropped to $62.5k, and they got hunted which started our move.
As that happened OI got slammed as they all got liquidated - decent bear trap.
Then from there we’ve had a very strong rally from spot buying, with a relatively flat OI, meaning leverage is minimal…
But still negative funding so most are trying to short this move.
The kinda setup you want to see for a low to form, and for it to continue higher.
We will get more signals about what is next at the range highs.
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Absolutely perfect short squeeze.
Driven by spot buyers.
Price up big, OI nuked... Spot CVD up.
Re-longed at the right time.
Higher.
Driven by spot buyers.
Price up big, OI nuked... Spot CVD up.
Re-longed at the right time.
Higher.
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Alts are not dead.
I don't care what your feelings tell you...
This chart is tells you the truth of it.
This is TOTAL3ES/BTC.
It is essentially all altcoins minus stables, divided by BTC.
What we can see is that this is currently at cycle lows for this chart.
It is nothing like previous cycle highs.
What we have here is a very tight accumulation and bottoming zone for alts against Bitcoin.
And we can see from 2020, once it decides to move... it moves fast.
I cant tell you when it will happen...
But I can tell you that we are within the total bottom zone for alts against Bitcoin.
And what comes
I don't care what your feelings tell you...
This chart is tells you the truth of it.
This is TOTAL3ES/BTC.
It is essentially all altcoins minus stables, divided by BTC.
What we can see is that this is currently at cycle lows for this chart.
It is nothing like previous cycle highs.
What we have here is a very tight accumulation and bottoming zone for alts against Bitcoin.
And we can see from 2020, once it decides to move... it moves fast.
I cant tell you when it will happen...
But I can tell you that we are within the total bottom zone for alts against Bitcoin.
And what comes
BTC5,42%
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This happens in every cycle.
And its always around mid cycle peak.
This adds an interesting weight on the overall market position.
You can see that each time Global Liquidity breaks out, Bitcoin moves slightly higher, then has a multi month correction...
Just like now.
Then, as global liquidity continues to increase, Bitcoin resumes higher again.
Last two cycles Global liquidity broke out for 671 days and 731 days.
Very similar.
So far, this cycle, we are only at 306 days.
What is also very striking to observe is that the contraction of global liquidity this cycle was much larger than 2016 and
And its always around mid cycle peak.
This adds an interesting weight on the overall market position.
You can see that each time Global Liquidity breaks out, Bitcoin moves slightly higher, then has a multi month correction...
Just like now.
Then, as global liquidity continues to increase, Bitcoin resumes higher again.
Last two cycles Global liquidity broke out for 671 days and 731 days.
Very similar.
So far, this cycle, we are only at 306 days.
What is also very striking to observe is that the contraction of global liquidity this cycle was much larger than 2016 and
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Mrworldwide:
true 💯 it's always around mid cycle peak when ever global liquidity breaks out:It happens every single time
Every single time Bitcoin has been at these record levels of oversold on the weekly timeframe, people declare it dead.
And it just so happens that every time, there is a new narrative for it.
- Bitcoin is useless
- Bitcoin has lost the digital gold race
- Quantum will kill it
- Saylor will be liquidated
- 20k coming
Right now, we are the most oversold on the weekly ever…
So is it a surprise that the FUD is worse than ever?
The funniest thing about this phenomenon is everyone is capable of looking back and seeing this…
But this is the power of emotion.
The fear of t
Every single time Bitcoin has been at these record levels of oversold on the weekly timeframe, people declare it dead.
And it just so happens that every time, there is a new narrative for it.
- Bitcoin is useless
- Bitcoin has lost the digital gold race
- Quantum will kill it
- Saylor will be liquidated
- 20k coming
Right now, we are the most oversold on the weekly ever…
So is it a surprise that the FUD is worse than ever?
The funniest thing about this phenomenon is everyone is capable of looking back and seeing this…
But this is the power of emotion.
The fear of t
BTC5,42%
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