Osemka8

$OTHERS: Since the inceptions of altcoins there have only been 3 notable volatility squeezes to the upside. All 3 of them have first tested the lower Bollinger band (white arrow), making a trap move before volatility was released in the other direction.
Same setup as now: tested the lower band and the bottom is rounding.

$TOTAL crypto MC made a first higher high (HH) in 3 months, after making a first higher low

Do not forget about 1W bearish divergence on $USDT.D. A first one since the major bottom after FTX collapse.
Also worth mentioning, and I think it's an important addition to the first observation, is that now $USDT.D is below the low of November and has REJECTED there.

It's not unusual this cycle that $ETH is making a triangular bottom. In fact it's a quite common occurrence.

[ $TAO ]
Bittensor fighting to get back into the range. If done, it would be very bullish for the macro structure.
We've already closed 1W above the weekly breaker, so that is very good news.
Fractal signals patience.

2025 yeary open still dictating price

Basic materials ( $IYM ) breaking out after YEARS and literally surging is another positive sign for the risk-on assets space.
The basic materials sector is highly cyclical and often acts as a leading indicator of economic health. So NO RECESSION in sight!
Here's why rising performance in this area is bullish:
1.) Strong industrial and manufacturing demand — Companies in basic materials (e.g., mining, chemicals, metals) supply raw inputs for construction, autos, infrastructure, electronics, and more. Rising prices and sector strength usually signal increasing orders, production, and investment

Wait a minute... what? Why?

So you're telling me this is how a cycle end looks like?

Distribution doesn't mean cycle end. There is distributive and accumulation-like behaviour all the time, so saying because we've distributed at the top, doesn't alone mean we've ended the run.
But you should note that after distribution we need a period of accumulation to move forward first
Here are a few examples.

There seems to be a lot of $BTC shorting going on with price rising, OI dropping, but funding turning negative