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#我的2026第一条帖 January 14, the crypto market maker Wintermute analyzed in its digital asset OTC trading market review: the traditional four-year cycle performance of Bitcoin in 2025 is weak, and the altcoin cycle has almost disappeared. This is not a temporary adjustment but a structural change. Therefore, for the crypto market to truly rebound strongly in 2026, it heavily depends on the occurrence of at least one of the following three key outcomes:
1. ETF and crypto treasury (DAT) companies will expand their investment scope beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum. Currently, the US spot BTC/ETH ETFs have liquidity concentrated in a few large-cap tokens, leading to a narrowing market breadth and severe performance divergence. Only when more coins are included by institutions through ETFs or corporate treasuries can broader market participation and liquidity be restored.
2. Major assets such as BTC, ETH, BNB, SOL, etc., will once again show strong performance and generate market participation driven by widespread asset appreciation. In 2025, the traditional cycle of "BTC rising followed by funds flowing into altcoins" has basically broken down. The average altcoin rally cycle is only about 20 days (compared to about 60 days the previous year), with most tokens continuing to decline due to unlocking selling pressure. Only when leading assets surge again can funds spill over downward, activating the altcoin market.
3. Retail investor attention returns to the crypto market. Currently, retail investors are still actively participating, but funds are mainly invested in high-growth themes such as the S&P 500, AI, robotics, and quantum computing. The painful memories of 2022-2023 (crashes, bankruptcies, forced liquidations), combined with crypto underperforming traditional stock markets in 2025, have significantly reduced the attractiveness of high returns in crypto assets. Only with a large-scale return of retail investors can the market regain its frenzy momentum.

#Gate广场官号粉丝破三万
Milestone of 30,000 followers, congratulations!
Gate Square's official account has surpassed 30,000 followers, which is not just a numerical increase but a vivid reflection of the community’s love and trust in Gate. From the first follower to a community family of 30,000, we have witnessed the rise and fall of the crypto world together, and also made "Square" a warm harbor for communication and learning.
Here, every fan enriches the content ecosystem of Gate Square with their voice and opinions; every interaction promotes the industry and explores the future.
Whether you are a seasoned "old chives" or a newcomer just starting out, your attention and participation make this place more lively and valuable.
Here, we share the latest market trends, interpret in-depth news, discuss investment insights, and occasionally complain about oddities in the crypto world.
30,000 is just the beginning; the next bigger milestone awaits us to witness together!
May we continue to walk together in the blockchain world and witness more shining moments. ✊🏻✊🏻✊🏻😎😎😎🤗🤗🤗

#Gate广场创作者新春激励 Understanding U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Data: Why Does It Influence Bitcoin's Price Movements?
On the night of the monthly non-farm payrolls release, global digital currency investors focus on these two figures, as if they hold an invisible lever to move the market.
    "U.S. Non-Farm Employment Data" and "Unemployment Rate" are the most closely watched indicators in global capital markets at the beginning of each month. On the surface, these two data points merely reflect the employment situation in the U.S., but in reality, they can trigger intense fluctuations across global stock markets, forex markets, bond markets, and digital currency markets.
    Why does employment data from across the ocean affect Bitcoin's price?
There is a clear transmission chain behind this: Employment Data → Federal Reserve Policy Expectations → U.S. Dollar Global Flows → Risk Asset Prices. Understanding this chain can help investors better grasp market trends.
01 Core Indicators, a Double Act of Economic Thermometer and Blood Pressure Monitor   The U.S. non-farm payrolls refer to the total number of new jobs added in the U.S. non-agricultural sector each month. You can imagine the entire U.S. economy as a giant company, and this number is equivalent to the number of new employees hired each month.
    The more people the company hires, the more it indicates business expansion and confidence in the future; conversely, fewer hires may signal contraction. This is the most direct "thermometer" for measuring economic health.
    The unemployment rate measures the proportion of people wanting to work but unable to find jobs in the labor market. It is the economy's "blood pressure monitor," reflecting resource utilization efficiency and social stability. Usually, these two indicators move in sync: when the economy is good, employment increases, and unemployment decreases.
    However, short-term divergences can occur, such as during early economic recovery, when more people re-enter the job market, causing the unemployment rate to temporarily rise.
02 Transmission Hub, the Federal Reserve's Policy Balance   As the central bank of the U.S., the Federal Reserve bears two core tasks: stabilizing prices and achieving maximum employment. Non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate data are primary indicators for assessing the progress of the "maximum employment" goal.
    When non-farm payrolls remain strong and the unemployment rate is at historic lows, the Fed worries about the economy overheating. Everyone has a job, wages are rising, and consumption is vigorous, which can push prices higher and trigger inflation.
    At this point, the Fed tends to step on the "brake" — raising interest rates to cool the economy.
    Conversely, when non-farm payrolls weaken and unemployment rises sharply, the Fed fears recession. Companies stop hiring, people hesitate to spend, and economic vitality declines. The Fed then steps on the "accelerator" — lowering interest rates to stimulate investment and consumption.
    The Fed's decisions depend entirely on the "temperature" of economic data. This monthly "health report" determines the direction and intensity of monetary policy.
03 Global Flows, the Tides of the U.S. Dollar   The Fed's interest rate decisions have a global impact because the U.S. dollar is the world's primary reserve and trading currency. To understand this mechanism, imagine the dollar as an "employee" working worldwide.
    When the Fed raises interest rates, it means the "employee" dollar can earn higher "wages" (interest income) in the U.S. This causes dollars spread across the world to "go home."
    Global investors will sell assets in other countries, including stocks and bonds in emerging markets, as well as risk assets like Bitcoin, converting funds back into dollars and flowing back to the U.S.
    This process results in two outcomes: the appreciation of the dollar and a "blood loss" in global risk asset markets.
    When the Fed cuts interest rates, the opposite occurs. The "employee" dollar finds lower returns in the U.S. and will seek higher yields elsewhere, providing "blood transfusions" to global risk assets, which often leads to rising prices.
04 Expectations Game, the Battle of Data and Consensus   Market trading involves not just the data itself, but also the gap between "expectation" and "reality." Before the data is released, the market has already formed a consensus and reflects this expectation in prices.
    If the actual data matches expectations perfectly, the market usually reacts calmly because there is no new information. If the data exceeds expectations, even if it is "acceptable" on its own, the failure to meet the market's already-digested pessimistic outlook can cause asset prices to fall.
    This phenomenon is called "good news is exhausted" or "bad news is exhausted." Due to Bitcoin's high leverage and 24-hour trading, this expectation gap effect is amplified, often resulting in sharp, two-way price swings immediately after data release, known as "spike" movements.
    After each non-farm payroll release, the steep peaks and valleys on Bitcoin price charts silently tell the story of rapid global capital reallocation. Traders watch the screens intently, their fingers hovering over buy and sell buttons, making decisions based on data interpretation and market psychology.
    In the Fed's conference room, officials scrutinize these employment figures, knowing that their next move will influence the gains and losses of a digital currency trader somewhere far away.
    In this market maze woven from data and expectations, understanding the rules is more important than predicting the direction.

#Gate广场创作者新春激励 When exchanges get involved directly, the ceiling for Meme coins is completely lifted!
The BN Foundation has directly stepped in to buy in. "BN Life" and "I'm Coming".
This is not just simple investment; it’s more like a clear endorsement.
In the crypto world, once projects of this caliber are supported and purchased by top-tier exchanges, their status changes entirely.
The traffic support from leading exchanges is like giving both exposure and funding. For small projects, it’s equivalent to riding a rocket🚀
Once they grow and expand, the wealth effect can kick in. Many investors ask, how much are they valued at?
We can make a simple prediction—use a calculator to estimate what PEPE’s peak market cap might be.
If it doesn’t even reach this height, then it’s just not right! The current market situation is clear to everyone.
VC (Venture Capital) projects currently have a pretty average reputation, with various unlocking mechanisms treating retail investors like ATMs.
This kind of harvesting approach will only narrow the road further.
In contrast, the Meme track, although volatile and prone to zeroing out, benefits from the support of top-tier exchange IPs, which come with built-in traffic and are relatively fair.
BN’s move is actually aligning with market sentiment.
Rather than letting the market hype wildly, it’s better to take the lead and channel the wealth effect to the top.
Essentially, it’s using the vitality of Meme to feed back into the entire platform ecosystem.
For ordinary players, this is actually a signal.
If even industry giants are betting on Meme, the potential for this track might be much bigger than we think.
Of course, risks are also present—high returns inevitably come with high volatility.
But at least, this shows us a new possibility—a more transparent and engaging new game.
Friendly reminder: Meme investments carry huge risks and can zero out at any time. This article does not recommend any projects. It only analyzes the underlying logic behind the events.
Share your thoughts in the comments—are you optimistic about these two projects?

#Meme币板块回暖 CZ一开口，市场就“疯”了？ 但这次Meme狂欢可能是个危险信号！
2026年开年，加密市场的剧本出乎所有人意料🎭。领涨的不是比特币，也不是以太坊，而是DOGE🐶、SHIB🦮、PEPE🐸等一众Meme币。
CoinMarketCap数据显示，Meme币板块整体市值已从低点快速拉升至477亿美元，短短几天增长近100亿美元💰。与此同时，BSC链上一个名为“我踏马来了”的中文Meme币，或因与CZ的互动，24小时内涨幅超过400%🚀，市值达到330万美元。这熟悉的一幕让老玩家心跳加速💓：牛市要回来了？ 但更多分析师冷眼旁观🧐：这或许不是冲锋号，而是市场在迷茫中放出的一枚烟雾弹💨。
01 Phenomenon: The Collective Frenzy of Meme Coins and the “CZ Effect”🎪2026年最初的几个交易日，市场资金仿佛找到了共同的出口🔄。PEPE上涨近65%，DOGE、SHIB等老牌Meme币也同步反弹。与此同时，一个更具本土色彩的事件吸引了华人圈的目光👀：BSC链上的中文Meme币“我踏马来了”价格急速拉升📊。尽管CZ具体如何“互动”的细节并未完全公开，但市场毫不犹豫地将此解读为重大利好👍。
“CZ Effect” has always been a core narrative within the BSC ecosystem. Some analysts straightforwardly state that the Meme model on BSC “completely revolves around CZ,” and its token value heavily depends on CZ’s personal influence and bn’s support. This reveals the fragile nature of such assets😥: their rise can stem from a joke or a retweet, but their collapse can be just as rapid.
02 Essence: “Sentiment Test Paper” in the Vacuum of Consensus🍃Why does the most volatile segment always be Meme coins when the market shifts from cold to hot? It’s not because they represent the future, but because they need the least “consensus.” When Bitcoin’s direction is unclear and mainstream narratives are scattered, funds dare not bet on long-term logic. At this moment, Meme coins—requiring no complex stories and relying solely on emotional resonance—become the most convenient “risk testing ground.”
An analyst accurately likened: Meme coins are not the cause of the market trend; they are the “sentiment test paper” of the market — they change color at the slightest touch, but are also most afraid of the wind🍃. Their rapid surge merely confirms one fact: there are still funds willing to bet amid uncertainty, testing the market’s risk tolerance.
Therefore, the current rally of Meme coins can be more accurately interpreted as a “market self-check,” rather than a “victory in the race.” It exposes not the solid foundation of a bull market, but the current vacuum state of lacking mainstream consensus.
03 Upgrade: From “Emotional Expression” to the Dangerous “Positioning Expression”⚖️
Unlike the 2021 wave driven purely by retail investors’ enthusiasm for Meme coins, this round of market shows a new, warning-worthy feature🚨. Data indicates that open interest in mainstream Meme coins like DOGE and PEPE (i.e., leveraged positions in derivatives markets) surged in tandem with price increases. This means a large amount of capital is using leverage to bet on the continued rise of Meme coins📊. This marks a change in driving force: Meme coins are no longer just “emotional expressions” of retail investors but have upgraded to a dangerous “positioning expression.”
When leverage is involved, the game changes🎲. During upward rallies, the enthusiasm accelerates; once sentiment reverses, cascading liquidations can sweep through the market in a more brutal and irrational manner.
04 Risks: The “Thin Ice” and “Invisible Tax” Behind the Frenzy🏛
For ordinary participants, the Meme coin market is at least covered by three layers of “thin ice”: first, extreme volatility and fraud risks. Chains like BSC, known for low fees and high speed, attract many Meme projects, but they are also notorious for extreme price swings. Many projects lack real utility, driven purely by hype, with risks of developers “pulling a rug” and disappearing.
Second, ecosystem dependence and centralization controversies🏛.
The Meme coin ecosystem on BSC is criticized for over-reliance on bn and CZ’s personal influence. This centralization risk means that if core support policies or attitudes change, the entire ecosystem could face a trust crisis🤔.
Finally, the unfairness of the market structure itself⚖.
Even on more advanced chains like Solana, applications may exploit information asymmetry to induce users to pay tips far exceeding the standard, which is criticized as a lucrative “invisible tax.”
In the jungle of unregulated markets, retail investors often end up at the bottom of the food chain.
05 Warning: Is it a Frontline Signal or a Bull Trap?🕳️
History keeps repeating itself, but each detail is enough to ruin lives. Is this Meme coin frenzy a prelude to a new bull market, or a classic “bull trap”?
Optimists see risk appetite returning; pessimists see a bubble built on leverage🫧. What is certain is that a true bull market has never been solely illuminated by Meme coins💡. It requires clear direction from Bitcoin and Ethereum🧭, and a healthy rotation across a broader altcoin sector🔄.
Currently, the strength of Meme coins more resembles a reminder: when the lightest and most flammable assets are ignited🔥, the real trend fire may still be gathering strength, or it may never arrive. And you, better see clearly which thin ice you are standing on⛸️.

#2026行情预测 Don't just focus on BTC! The true growth trump card in 2026 might be Ethereum!
Although ETH's 2025 price performance did not meet market expectations, RAAC founder Kevin Rusher pointed out that focusing only on price overlooks more important trends—ETH is experiencing accelerated institutional adoption, which could lead to unexpected growth in 2026.
Currently, ETH's price has rebounded above $3,050, but Rusher emphasized that its real growth drivers come from institutional applications in stablecoins, tokenized assets, and payment methods.
ETH accounts for over 62% of the stablecoin issuance market, with a total value surpassing $59 billion. In the field of tokenized assets, ETH also dominates the market, carrying approximately $12.5 billion in real-world assets, accounting for over 65%, far higher than other public chains. Capital flows also confirm this trend: funds flowing into ETH in 2025 doubled, while BTC's capital inflow halved.
Additionally, enterprise-level stablecoin payments on ETH continue to grow, demonstrating its increasingly solidified position in payment infrastructure.
Rusher summarized that institutions are rapidly adopting the ETH ecosystem, laying the foundation for its future growth. BitMine Chairman Tom Lee is also optimistic about ETH, predicting its price could reach $7,000–$9,000 in early 2026.
Although ETH's price in 2025 appears somewhat weak, its practical adoption and ecological expansion in key areas are steadily progressing, which may gradually translate into strong price performance in 2026.