Jamesvanst

As of yesterday, the Bitcoin miner capitulation was over.
It was the second longest on record (3 months), suggesting the worst is over for price.
However, let's see how much hashrate, if any, goes offline from the Middle East attacks.
Now trying to work out what "new news" could take Bitcoin lower from here (Black Monday meh).
Bitcoin tends to make its low within the first 10 days of a month; it did so again (February 6).
The first ten days should be choppy, but based on probability, March should be green.
Bitcoin eventually bottoms when price doesn't go down on bad news. Just like when it doe

The obituaries keep coming in.

Open interest down over past 24 hours
Funding rate negative
Shorts are covering which is driving the move
Need continued spot buying to squeeze higher

BTC supply in loss just hit 10M coins, the fourth-highest reading ever.
A further 70K coins are in loss from purchases between Feb. 6 and today.
Circulating supply hits 20M BTC next week, that’s 50% in loss.
History suggests that’s enough capital destruction for a bear market bottom.

Long-term holder supply has increased by 400k BTC since November 23rd.
LTH behaviour changed post-ETF, as clearly seen in the supply structure (first image).
Zooming in on the two previous LTH supply drawdowns (Yen carry & Liberation Day tariffs).
The bottom had already occurred by the time LTH supply started increasing (second image).

Here are the six outstanding convertible notes for MSTR.
The one everyone is interested in is the first put date: the September 2027 put.
If the September 2027 put date were today, it would likely be a non event for MSTR.
With the stock at $130, conversion is out of the money ($182 conversion price), but the bond is currently trading at $111 which means investors value the credit and the remaining optionality above par.
Viewing MSTR's near term credit risk as manageable, despite the stock sitting below conversion price. Since the put only returns $100, holders would have no economic ince